Water Wars: How Climate Change Intensifies the India-Pakistan Conflict

Mehebub Sahana, University of Manchester

India recently suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, pointing to concerns about cross-border terrorism. This move is part of rising tensions between the two nations, both of which are nuclear powers and face a precarious situation.

This treaty’s suspension mirrors a growing trend in South Asia where countries view water as a strategic asset rather than a shared resource. With mistrust rising and climate change intensifying, this could lead to serious environmental and humanitarian issues.

South Asia houses around a quarter of the world’s population and relies heavily on transboundary rivers that are fed by melting Himalayan glaciers, known as the “Third Pole.” Any break in water diplomacy could catalyze crises that affect millions. Water conflicts are becoming a pressing global climate justice issue.

For example, in August 2024, catastrophic floods impacted nearly 5.8 million people in Bangladesh. Some officials accused India of releasing too much water from a dam without notice. India defended itself, citing heavy rains as the real cause. Still, this incident flared up existing tensions.

Additionally, China has recently approved a massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, which flows into India as the Brahmaputra. This has raised concerns about China’s upstream control and the ecological risks posed to India and Bangladesh downstream.

Climate Change Intensifying Water Conflicts

Recent trends in climate change are heightening conflicts over transboundary rivers. Rapid glacier melt, unpredictable monsoon patterns, and increasing extreme weather events are eroding stability in the region. Studies suggest that if current emissions continue, essential glacier-fed rivers like the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra may experience significantly reduced flows by the end of the century, affecting millions.

The Himalayan region is warming faster than the global average, shifting water patterns from snowfall to rain, which disrupts water supply for agriculture. Meanwhile, unsustainable groundwater management further threatens water security in South Asia.

A Fragile Trust

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty sets a worrying precedent. While India cutting off water flows is technically challenging, the bigger threat is the erosion of trust and transparency in water sharing. Accurate data on water levels and flows is crucial for flood forecasts and irrigation management, and India’s unwillingness to share this data poses a risk.

India’s water diplomacy issues extend to Bangladesh and Nepal as well. As the Ganges Water Treaty approaches its expiration in 2026, concerns rise about Bangladesh’s guaranteed water flow. Other agreements, like the Mahakali Treaty with Nepal, remain largely unfulfilled, further sowing distrust among neighboring countries.

All three nations continue to rely on outdated irrigation methods, wasting valuable water. As climate challenges worsen, there’s an urgent need to reform water treaties, adapting them to modern climate realities.

The Indus Waters Treaty was crafted in a different era, lacking provisions for today’s climate challenges. Upcoming negotiations provide a critical chance to rethink water governance in South Asia.

Additionally, India’s position in future negotiations could weaken if it undermines existing treaties. China is already expanding its influence in South Asian water politics, and this path may strengthen its grip on the region.

Using water as a political tool is risky. The decline of water diplomacy in South Asia poses a threat not just regionally but globally. Reworking agreements like the Indus Waters Treaty is an urgent necessity that could have widespread consequences.

Mehebub Sahana, Leverhulme Early Career Fellow, Geography, University of Manchester

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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