Since President Trump took office this year, an unprecedented wave of congressional members is choosing to step away. As of now, nine senators and 21 House members have declared they won’t seek reelection, marking a striking trend for this early in the election cycle.
As the dates approach for the 2026 elections, all 435 House seats, 33 Senate seats, and two special Senate elections are on the line. This political landscape reveals a notable change: more members of Congress are now looking to transition to state governorships. For example, senators like Tommy Tuberville of Alabama and Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee are eyeing a move to state leadership.
Historically, it’s more common for former governors to run for Senate roles. Currently, twelve sitting senators fit this profile, showing how traditional paths in politics are shifting. Jessica Taylor from the Cook Political Report pointed out that we’re witnessing a unique trend: more senators heading to governor positions rather than the reverse. This could be due to the growing partisanship paralyzing Congress, where cooperation between parties has dwindled.
According to research from Ballotpedia, incumbent senators have a 71% success rate when they run for governor—much higher compared to governors transitioning to the Senate, which stands at about 48%. This could suggest that currently, the path of least resistance may lead legislators toward state office, especially amid a climate where voters are feeling less trust in Washington.
Some governors avoiding Senate races may be scouting their options for future presidential runs in 2028, recognizing that the landscape of politics is changing. For instance, leaders like Brian Kemp and Chris Sununu are focusing on maintaining their gubernatorial positions instead of seeking higher office.
A deeper look into Congress over the years shows a significant turnover. Since Trump’s first term began, roughly half of the members from the 115th Congress are no longer in office, either through retirements, elections, or resignations. Many who initially held office during Trump’s presidency have made their exits for various reasons, including tighter scrutiny on older lawmakers and growing public frustrations with governance in Washington.
An analysis by Taylor revealed two primary reasons driving current lawmakers away from Congress: a desire for life beyond politics and the intense public scrutiny surrounding age and effectiveness. This has been further complicated by national conversations centering on health and performance, especially surrounding both Trump and Biden. As the political landscape evolves, it will be interesting to observe how these trends affect future elections.
For ongoing insights into political movements and their history, consider sources like the U.S. Census Bureau or the Pew Research Center for credible information on demographics and voter preferences.
