Global food systems are facing serious challenges, and a recent study highlights how vulnerable they actually are. This new benchmark, involving 60 countries, shows no nation scored above 80 out of 100 in resilience. Climate risk emerged as a common concern, especially as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affect fertilizer supplies, impacting the food and beverage industry worldwide.
The Resilient Food Systems Index (RFSI), created by Economist Impact and backed by Cargill, measures resilience through four key areas: affordability, availability, quality and safety, and climate risk responsiveness. Portugal tops the list with a score of 76.83, while the Democratic Republic of Congo falls behind at 34.86, revealing a significant 42-point gap.
“Food security is global security,” says Lauren Bresnahan, chief economist at Cargill. “To build resilience, we need to connect farmers to markets and create flexible supply chains that can handle shocks from climate and conflict.”
There’s a real risk in how concentrated food production is. Just 15 countries produce 70% of the world’s food. Even these leading nations scored an average of only 70.07 on the index. When issues arise in these countries, they can trigger shocks that affect global markets. For example, Brazil relies heavily on imports for its fertilizers, much of which passes through the stressed Strait of Hormuz.
Bresnahan emphasizes that trade is essential. Disruptions lead to rising prices and tightening affordability, particularly for countries dependent on imports for nutritious food. The RFSI reveals a strong connection between open agricultural trade and both the affordability of healthy diets and dietary diversity, but rising tariffs and trade barriers threaten this balance.
One of the RFSI’s findings is that climate risk responsiveness is the weakest area, scoring an average of 56.43. There’s no lack of innovation; however, political commitment to address agricultural challenges averages just 34.03—the lowest score in the index. Bresnahan points out, “We need coordinated efforts between policy, finance, and infrastructure for real progress.”
Food affordability stands out as the strongest area, scoring an average of 71.83. Yet, the numbers tell a different story for poorer households, who spend about two-thirds of their income on healthy diets. Food prices in low-income countries have surged by over 23% in the past five years.
The index highlights that focusing solely on affordability can lead to long-term public health issues. For instance, the US ranks high on affordability but low in dietary diversity due to unhealthy food consumption. Cargill aims to bridge this gap through reformulation, enhancing the nutritional profile of everyday foods.
Reducing food loss and waste stands out as a key opportunity for resilience. Roughly 13.2% of food is lost from the farm to retail, and an additional 19% is wasted in households. While many countries are developing strategies to tackle this, effective cold chain logistics—essential for perishable foods—remain underinvested in, averaging only 42.78 in the index.
Bresnahan shares that Cargill’s innovations, such as an AI-powered system for meat processing and a technology that extends ground beef’s shelf life, are ways to reduce waste effectively.
In summary, the ingredients for a resilient food system are already out there. The challenge lies in better coordination and scaling efforts. With the crisis in Hormuz stretching into its fourth week and the planting season approaching, there’s a growing need for a more connected food system. As Bresnahan puts it, “When we keep food moving and invest continuously in the supply chain, we prepare ourselves for future disruptions.”
For further insights on the state of global food systems, you can explore the Economist Impact’s Resilient Food Systems Index.
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Food System Resilience, Supply Chain Disruption
