On February 14, 2026, during a meeting in Phoenix, Kelly Fast, NASA’s acting planetary defense officer, highlighted a major challenge in spotting near-Earth asteroids bigger than 140 meters. She revealed that around 15,000 of these asteroids remain undetected. This gap in detection keeps her up at night, as many of these asteroids could cause severe damage if they impact Earth.
Currently, astronomers have identified about 10,000 near-Earth asteroids. However, estimates suggest there may be as many as 25,000 out there. As Fast pointed out, “We’re only about 40 percent of the way through finding them.” This gap between what we know and what we can detect poses significant risks.
A 140-meter asteroid could unleash energy comparable to hundreds of nuclear bombs. It could flatten cities or even generate tsunamis if it struck oceans. This potential for destruction increases the urgency for better detection.
A significant part of the problem is that many of these asteroids come from the direction of the sun, making them hard to spot with standard telescopes. They can only be seen once they move away from the sun’s glare, which complicates preventive measures.
Solutions are on the horizon. Infrared telescopes can detect heat from these dark asteroids. For instance, NASA’s NEO Surveyor, set to launch in late 2027, aims to improve detection significantly by observing areas where light telescopes struggle.
In 2022, NASA’s DART mission successfully impacted an asteroid, proving that deflection is possible if we have enough warning time. However, Nancy Chabot from Johns Hopkins noted that we currently lack the resources to have a spacecraft ready for immediate action against a threat. Detection must happen first to trigger any potential defense efforts.
The NEO Surveyor telescope hopes to close this detection gap. It aims to detect 65% of hazardous asteroids within its first five years. Meanwhile, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile is enhancing ground-based detection efforts.
On an organizational level, NASA has implemented a National Preparedness Strategy for Near Earth Objects, while international frameworks coordinate global responses. The next exercise for the International Asteroid Warning Network will occur in 2027, testing how we might respond to a potential impact.
The likelihood of a significant asteroid hitting Earth is estimated at once every 20,000 years. Although this doesn’t seem urgent, it necessitates ongoing planning and international cooperation.
Fast’s insights underscore a critical gap: many dangerous asteroids remain undetected. The success of upcoming technologies will be crucial in closing this gap before an asteroid makes its presence known in potentially devastating ways.
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