Why New Zealand’s Future Hangs in the Balance as Trump Undermines Global Rules – And Why the Silence Matters

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently released its 2023 foreign policy assessment called “Navigating a Shifting World.” It predicted a tricky period ahead for New Zealand, but things have already changed significantly.

The chaos caused by the Trump administration in global politics is deeper than the report anticipated. If another country caused such disruption, New Zealand would likely speak out. Yet, it has mostly stayed silent while Trump withdrew from key agreements, like the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Accord. He also attacked foreign aid programs and cut funding to the United Nations.

If there were a threat from Russia or China toward nearby countries, New Zealand would likely respond strongly. But, it has remained largely quiet on these big issues.

While the United States is still part of the World Trade Organization, Trump’s use of tariffs could disrupt international trade agreements. He hasn’t left the International Court of Justice, yet his plan regarding Palestinian removal from Gaza dismisses the court’s ruling on Israeli actions and challenges international law.

In light of this, New Zealand has chosen not to take a position.

As countries around the world have criticized Trump’s actions, New Zealand is waiting for more clarity before commenting, sticking to its support for a two-state solution in Palestine.

When Trump sanctioned the International Criminal Court, New Zealand did not join a statement from 79 countries backing the court.

The upcoming challenge will be Trump’s attempt to forge peace between Russia and Ukraine. While peace is essential, there are concerns about the compromises involved.

For New Zealand, the decision is complicated due to its lack of special agreements with the US and its place in this changing landscape.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stated that New Zealand must “stand up for the international rules-based system.” Staying silent won’t work forever, especially as its sway in the South Pacific declines.

China is moving in to expand its influence, while New Zealand is cutting back its aid programs. The shift became evident with Kiribati, which moved closer to China. Recently, other Pacific nations, like the Solomon Islands and East Timor, have also engaged with China for security support.

The recent rift with the Cook Islands signifies a turning point.

Although no longer a dependency, the Cook Islands benefit greatly from their free association with New Zealand. This relationship gives them citizenship rights and access to live and work in New Zealand.

In return, they are expected to consult New Zealand on foreign affairs that might impact both nations. However, the surprising “comprehensive strategic partnership” with China caught New Zealand off guard, straining their relationship.

New Zealand is at a crossroads. If it speaks out too strongly, it could hurt its important ties with the Cook Islands and irritate China. If it remains silent, its influence may diminish.

New Zealand’s independent foreign policy has served it well for years, helping it navigate global challenges. But, as the international order shifts, remaining silent out of fear can no longer be the answer.