As we approach the upcoming elections, a concerning trend is emerging: fewer congressional races are expected to be competitive. Experts believe that significant redistricting efforts led by former President Trump are primarily responsible for this shift.
Currently, only 18 out of 435 congressional races are considered toss-ups. This means that less than 5% of Americans will have a real say in who controls the House, says David Wasserman, a senior elections analyst at the Cook Political Report. This disparity in voting power is not a new issue; it has been worsening over several election cycles.
The Unite America Institute highlights a troubling statistic: in 2024, just 7% of voters will elect 87% of House races. This makes it clear that the majority of American voters are increasingly sidelined.
Geographical sorting and modern technology have made it easier for lawmakers to create districts that favor one party over another. Nick Troiano, executive director of Unite America, notes that the mid-decade redistricting has worsened the primary problem, with 32 states lacking even a single competitive congressional race. This means we may face the least competitive midterm elections in history, resulting in less accountability for Congress.
Last year, Trump influenced redistricting efforts in Texas, seeking to create more Republican-friendly seats. In contrast, Democratic leaders in California found ways to increase their own favorable districts. Other states, including North Carolina and Florida, are also engaging in similar redistricting strategies.
Interestingly, Wasserman indicates that the new maps haven’t favored either party significantly. Instead, they have diluted the competitiveness of congressional districts. He points out that while once there were many competitive races, now blue state delegations are becoming bluer while red ones are cementing their power.
Another layer to this issue is that primary voters tend to be more ideologically extreme and less representative of the general population. According to Unite America’s analysis, primary voters are often older, whiter, and wealthier. This results in a Congress that doesn’t reflect the diverse views of all Americans.
Some states are working to open their primaries to independent voters, the fastest-growing segment of the electorate. For example, New Mexico has allowed non-affiliated voters to participate in party primaries. However, many states have restricted access to their primaries, with 17 states having fully or partially closed their primaries.
In light of this, there have been efforts to implement nonpartisan primaries, but recent ballot measures in states like Arizona and Oregon have failed. Advocates believe that including independent voters in primaries could lead to more representative outcomes in elections.
As Troiano warns, the overall lack of competition could worsen dysfunction in Washington. It’s crucial to address these issues to ensure that the voices of more Americans are heard in Congress. This challenge is only expected to grow as fewer competitive seats are available in future elections.
