Tropical Storm Erin is making its way through the North Atlantic, and it’s important to keep an eye on this developing storm. Initially, it was a strong disturbance that swept over the Cabo Verde Islands before being classified as a tropical storm on Monday. As of Monday morning, Erin was located almost 300 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, traveling west at about 20 mph, with wind speeds reaching 45 mph.
Historically, the average date for the Atlantic’s fifth tropical storm is August 22, based on data from 1990 to 2020. This year is a bit ahead of schedule, but the storms so far have been relatively weak. Predictions suggest that Erin could strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday.
Currently, Erin shows a small, defined circulation pattern. Wind data indicates light to moderate wind shear, which is favorable for storm development. The atmosphere is quite moist with a humidity level around 60%. Such conditions, particularly during the night, can aid in storm growth. The system also benefits from rising air currents in the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Looking back, NOAA’s database indicates that in the last 174 years, only 41 tropical storms have developed near Erin’s starting point. The most significant storms in that area include Hurricane Florence in 2018 and Hurricane Irma in 2017. Both caused massive destruction and loss of life.
Recent forecasts suggest that Erin could become a major hurricane by this weekend. It will likely encounter warmer sea surface temperatures as it moves westward, which is crucial for further intensification. Ocean temperatures along Erin’s path could reach up to 29°C (84°F) by Saturday, providing the energy needed to strengthen.
Forecast models largely agree that Erin will curve back toward the northeast, rather than making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. An upper-level weather system in the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada is expected to steer the storm away from land, possibly affecting Bermuda instead.
However, these models could change. It’s vital to monitor the storm’s path in the coming days. Should Erin intensify as predicted, it could lead to increased swells, high surf, and potentially dangerous rip currents along the Atlantic coast.
While Erin is the primary focus right now, two other weak systems in the Atlantic have very low chances of developing further, keeping the outlook relatively calm for the rest of the week.
For an in-depth look at storm history and predictions, you can visit the National Hurricane Center.
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Bob Henson,hurricane,Jeff Masters
