Asteroid 2024 YR4 caught everyone’s attention last year when it was thought to be on a collision path with Earth in 2032. Though that threat has been ruled out, there’s still a 4% chance it could hit the Moon. While those odds seem small, the scientific community is taking it seriously.
If 2024 YR4 were to collide with the Moon, it could eject a huge amount of micrometeoroid debris into low-Earth orbit. This debris could pose risks to spacecraft and astronauts on the International Space Station. A new study from NASA and other U.S. institutions looks into ways we might avoid this situation. Their research, currently under review, suggests that blowing up the asteroid might be our best option.
But hold on—why consider destruction? Typically, deflection is preferred. If we can nudge the asteroid off course, we avoid creating smaller pieces that could be hard to predict or control. However, deflection is tricky. Given our limited knowledge about 2024 YR4, a perfect execution would be necessary to ensure success.
NASA’s 2022 DART mission showed that altering an asteroid’s path is possible. The spacecraft successfully changed the trajectory of Dimorphos, a smaller moonlet. But doing this isn’t simple. Scientists need to know the asteroid’s mass to calculate how much force is required to shift it. The James Webb Space Telescope measured 2024 YR4’s diameter at about 197 feet (60 meters), but its mass is an estimate. It could be anywhere from 74 million pounds (33 million kg) to over 2 billion pounds (930 million kg). And if we miscalculate? We could end up steering it toward Earth instead of away from it.
One potential strategy to improve mass estimates is sending a reconnaissance mission. However, the optimal window for that would be in 2028, leaving limited time for planning—only three years. The researchers concluded that deflection missions might not be practical.
So, what about destruction? The researchers propose a couple of options. One is a kinetic disruption mission, akin to NASA’s DART but aiming to break the asteroid apart rather than just divert it. The next launch window for this kind of mission could be between April 2030 and April 2032, giving NASA some time to prepare.
The second option is even more drastic: detonating a nuclear device near or on the asteroid. This method hasn’t been tested yet, but conceptually, it could work. The timeframe for this mission might fit between late 2029 and late 2031.
As of now, we have about seven years before 2024 YR4 makes its closest approach. It’s likely to pass by the Moon safely. Still, studying this asteroid provides scientists with a unique chance to refine impact prevention strategies. It’s a real opportunity to ensure we’re ready if we ever face a significant threat.
For more in-depth information about asteroid detection and deflection strategies, you can refer to NASA’s resources on planetary defense here.
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