Will ‘Mickey 17’ Struggle at the Global Box Office? Insights on Its $45M Opening Weekend Expectations

Mickey 17, the new sci-fi film from Parasite director Bong Joon Ho, hits theaters this weekend. It’s projected to earn around $45 million globally.

Starring Robert Pattinson, the film costs about $118 million to produce, thanks to tax credits from the UK. To break even, it will need to make between $240 million and $300 million. That’s a tall order for any movie, especially in the tough landscape of original sci-fi, which usually appeals to older audiences.

But there’s good news: U.S. tracking for Mickey 17 has improved. Predictions for its domestic opening are now over $20 million. The film follows Pattinson’s character, an “expendable” worker in space, who sacrifices himself but can be “reprinted” or reborn. This relatable character may help draw in wider audiences. For reference, Denis Villeneuve’s acclaimed Arrival opened at $24 million, and Mickey 17 has received positive reviews, currently holding an impressive 85% on Rotten Tomatoes.

When it comes to production costs, Mickey 17 is more expensive than Bong’s previous works, like Okja ($50 million) and Parasite ($11 million), which made over $46 million in profit. The film draws from the novel Mickey 7 by Edward Ashton and was greenlit by Warner Bros. in January 2022.

On its opening weekend, Mickey 17 will be available in 3,770 theaters across the U.S. and will feature premium experiences like IMAX and Dolby Cinema. The film begins its previews on Thursday at 3 p.m. in 3,200 locations.

The film debuted in Korea last weekend, earning $9 million, marking a strong start for both Warner Bros. and Pattinson in that market.

Internationally, Mickey 17 will launch in 66 markets, with an international debut estimated at around $25 million. The film has already gained good early reviews in France, and anticipation is high in other countries. Particularly in China, where local media highlighted the film’s appeal to young audiences as a story about workers dealing with demanding bosses.

The cast also includes Mark Ruffalo, Toni Collette, Steven Yeun, and Naomi Ackie. Bong and the team have been traveling for promotional events, including premieres in Seoul, London, Berlin, and Paris.

It’ll be interesting to see how Mickey 17 performs. Often, films from well-known directors draw significant audiences during their opening weekends. For instance, Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu has become Focus Features’ second-highest grossing film in the U.S., showcasing the potential for auteur films to find an audience.

This weekend also sees the release of Rule Breakers, featuring Phoebe Waller-Bridge. It’s set in a country where educating girls is seen as rebellion, and it hopes to inspire change. It’s expected to earn in the low single digits at the box office with a solid 77% rating from critics.

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Bong Joon Ho,Mickey 17,Warner Bros