Will Tariffs Impact Your Grocery Bill? Exploring the Availability of Fresh Fruits and Vegetables

As tariffs are introduced or removed, many economists predict a rise in food prices. But what does this mean for the availability of fresh produce, like fruits and vegetables? Will we still find strawberries in February?

John Lowrey, an expert in food pricing and supply chains at Northeastern University, offers some clarity. He believes that consumers will still find fresh produce in stores, but the variety may wane if trade tensions escalate. “You might not see less of a product like avocados overall, but expect fewer options in terms of varieties,” he explains.

For example, if tariffs limit imports from Mexico, there could be more California avocados on the shelves instead. Lowrey adds, “Trade changes can impact what is available in stores. However, we likely won’t experience a overall scarcity.”

Historically, U.S. imports of fresh fruits and vegetables have grown significantly. Since 1981, fresh fruit imports have doubled and vegetable imports have tripled, thanks in part to agreements like NAFTA and the USMCA. As of 2023, Mexico provides over half of the U.S.’s fresh fruit imports and two-thirds of its vegetables, according to the USDA.

But tariffs on these imports threaten to disrupt this supply chain. Lowrey highlights that the effects vary depending on whether the U.S. is a net importer or exporter of specific fruits and vegetables. For example, the U.S. imports around 60% of its fresh fruit. Therefore, implementing tariffs on fruits like strawberries would likely lead to higher prices.

He further elaborates, “If the U.S. is a net exporter of a crop like apples, domestic supply won’t change much unless retaliatory tariffs come into play. If that happens, it could hurt U.S. farmers and their ability to sell exports.” This situation could lead farmers to pivot to different crops or diversify their domestic market strategies.

Experts, including Lowrey, suggest that changes due to tariffs won’t happen overnight. “Adjustments take time,” he says. For now, there’s no need for consumers to panic-buy or stockpile food. “Supply won’t suddenly vanish like it did during the pandemic,” he reassures.

Lowrey believes that due to uneven tariffs, consumers may become more reliant on in-season and domestically sourced products, such as citrus from Florida rather than imports from Mexico or South America.

In conclusion, while tariffs may raise food prices and impact availability, the result won’t be an immediate shortage. Instead, consumers can expect subtle shifts in the types of produce available, but fresh fruits and vegetables will still make their way to grocery store shelves.

For more on food imports and their impact, you can check the USDA’s detailed reports here.

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