4 Key Ways NOAA Budget Cuts Will Undermine the Reliability of Weather Forecasts

Changes at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) could hurt the reliability of weather forecasts. Many researchers and the American Meteorological Society raised concerns over ongoing staff cuts.

According to a statement from Senator Maria Cantwell, over 880 NOAA employees have lost their jobs during President Trump’s administration. This includes many who worked on improving hurricane predictions and developing new weather models. The cuts also hit the National Weather Service hard, where staffing shortages already existed.

NOAA officials did not comment on the firings but assured the public that they would continue to provide weather updates for safety. However, experts fear that these changes could lead to less accurate forecasts.

Experts predict that the staffing cuts will lead to noticeable impacts on weather forecasting in the following ways:

1. Delayed Tornado Warnings

The National Weather Service operates 122 forecasting offices across the U.S. Unfortunately, many in tornado-stricken areas are now understaffed. Some offices already struggle to keep up with severe weather warnings, especially with tornado season just ahead.

Staff from neighboring offices may help, but coordination can lead to delays. In the past, there have been instances where tornado warnings were issued too late, giving residents only minutes to act.

2. Unpredictable Hurricane Strength Changes

Noaa once had a team focused on predicting when hurricanes might rapidly intensify. These storms can become dangerous very quickly, leaving little time for people to prepare. However, staffing reductions threaten this progress. Many skilled hurricane forecasters are no longer with the agency, which slows advancements in prediction accuracy.

3. Decreased Quality of Weather Data

Weather forecasts rely on data from various sources, such as satellites, ocean buoys, and radar. This data is crucial for creating accurate forecasts. But cuts in staffing could compromise data collection efforts. Some local forecasting centers have already had to pause their weather balloon launches due to shortages.

4. Slowed Progress on Future Weather Models

Staff cuts at NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center affect essential research aimed at improving forecasting systems. With fewer people working on these models, it takes longer to make necessary updates. This situation could stall advancements that enhance the accuracy of weather predictions.

Experts emphasize that losing skilled researchers is detrimental to the reliability of forecasts, which have improved significantly over the last few decades thanks to ongoing research and development. Without adequate staffing, the future of weather forecasting remains uncertain.