This August, Mumbai experienced its wettest month in five years, with nearly 1,184 mm of rainfall. Dr. Subimal Ghosh, a climate expert at IIT-Bombay, discusses changes in rainfall patterns and the urgent need for early warning systems to navigate extreme weather.
The Centre for Climate Studies at IIT-Bombay has developed a hyperlocal forecasting system. It offers a detailed 3-day weather forecast specifically for Mumbai, which residents can access via the Mumbai Flood portal and app. This innovative system aids the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) in managing rainfall impacts. With contributions from a dedicated research team led by Dr. Ghosh, including PhD student Puja Tripathy, the project also features sensors placed throughout the city to monitor water levels and crowdsource information about flooding. The public response has been overwhelmingly positive.
According to Dr. Ghosh, certain neighborhoods, particularly those near Sanjay Gandhi National Park, are more prone to heavy rainfall. This is due to their geographic location and low elevation. He notes that extreme weather events are rising globally, with studies indicating that for every degree Celsius increase in temperature, the intensity of such events can increase by 7–8%. In Mumbai, both the warming Arabian Sea and urban heat islands, created by buildings and roads, contribute to local downpours.
Moreover, Dr. Ghosh emphasizes the complexity involved in linking rainfall changes to climate change directly. While it’s clear that extreme events are on the rise, attributing every occurrence requires careful scientific analysis. He suggests that instead of debating the causes, focus should shift to improving early warning systems and adaptation strategies.
A common perception exists that forecasts from outside sources tend to be more accurate than those from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Dr. Ghosh argues that no single forecasting model is superior across all events. Relying on various models can provide a broader understanding of weather patterns. Engaging the community in monitoring weather events is essential to build trust and improve accuracy in predictions.
As climate change continues to intensify weather extremes, effective flood management becomes increasingly important. Innovations in weather prediction and hydrological modeling must evolve. Financial resources and government policies should align to facilitate these advancements. The public’s role in monitoring changes can serve as a valuable asset in managing water-related crises.
To stay informed on these issues, experts encourage citizens to utilize real-time weather apps and engage in discussions about weather preparedness. As we aim for a resilient future, being informed and proactive will help communities navigate the challenges ahead efficiently.
For more on climate change and its impacts, visit the IPCC for comprehensive research findings.
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Mumbai Rainfall, Flood Monitoring System, Climate Change and Rainfall, Extreme Weather Events, Early Warning Systems, Weather-Smart, Mumbai Floods, IIT-Bombay Research, Climate Studies, indian express
