Earth’s tropical regions play a big role in shaping global weather. One important factor is the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). This climate pattern consists of large clusters of clouds and rainfall that move eastward across the warm tropical oceans. The MJO affects rainfall, tropical cyclones, and even weather outside the tropics. Understanding how it works helps us improve weather forecasts.
In recent years, we’ve noticed that ocean temperatures are warming unevenly. While many tropical areas heat up, the central and eastern Pacific have stayed cooler, which resembles a La Niña condition. This shift raises an important question: How does this uneven warming impact the MJO’s movement?
A team led by researchers from Pusan National University studied MJO behavior during two periods: 1979-1998 and 2003-2022. Professor Kyung-Ja Ha stated, “The recent ocean warming has changed how the MJO progresses, speeding it up over some regions like the Indian Ocean while slowing it down in others like the western Pacific.” The findings were published in Communications Earth & Environment.
The study used satellite data and atmospheric analysis to track moderate changes in convection and sea surface temperatures. Results showed noticeable differences across regions. In the Indian Ocean, the MJO’s eastward movement sped up due to stronger moisture gradients and better atmospheric stability. Meanwhile, the Maritime Continent also saw some acceleration in the MJO, though less dramatically.
On the other hand, the western Pacific experienced a slowdown. This was linked to weaker moisture gradients and reduced vertical motion, making it harder for the MJO to advance. The researchers highlight the importance of atmospheric stability in determining how the MJO evolves. Understanding this stability can improve our predictions of MJO dynamics.
These findings have practical implications. Professor Ha noted that enhancing climate models could lead to more accurate forecasts of rainfall and drought. This information can help governments and communities prepare better for changing weather patterns. For instance, they can invest in resilient infrastructure and sustainable agricultural practices.
In summary, uneven ocean warming is reshaping the way the MJO operates. Since the MJO influences rainfall, cyclones, and other climate factors, capturing its dynamics is crucial for improving global weather forecasts in a warming world.
For more insights, you can read the study by Hye-Ryeom Kim et al., titled “Recent asymmetric tropical ocean warming has altered regional propagation of Madden-Julian Oscillation,” published in Communications Earth & Environment (2025) here.
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