Coffee farmers are facing big challenges. Tariffs, pests, and diseases are just a few of their worries. Experts warn that the coffee industry can’t keep going as it has been. Growers are running out of workers, and the land where coffee thrives is diminishing quickly.
Your beloved morning cup might not disappear, but it could get pricier and taste different. As International Coffee Day approaches on October 1, let’s explore the current state of coffee and what to expect in the future.
Climate change is a significant concern. A 2014 study projects that suitable land for coffee farming could shrink by 50% by 2050. Coffee powerhouses like Brazil and Vietnam may see their best growing regions become unfit for coffee, while Ethiopia might face a 21% loss of its coffee-growing area. Sara Morrocchi, CEO of Vuna, insists that climate change is the most pressing issue for coffee producers, with rising temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns making farming harder.
Arabica coffee, which dominates the U.S. market, traditionally grows at higher altitudes. However, as temperatures rise, farmers are pushed to plant in even higher elevations. Jeremy Haggar, an agroecology expert, highlights drought as another major threat. In Nicaragua, extreme dry spells have led to coffee plants collapsing. Morrocchi adds that the unpredictability caused by climate change poses even more significant threats.
Farmers can adapt by planting shade trees and diversifying their crops, but many just can’t afford these changes. Many live in poverty, and fluctuating coffee prices make it hard to plan for the future. “Higher costs for fertilizers and labor, along with climate extremes, all need investment,” Haggar explains. Migration is also causing labor shortages, as younger generations see little future in farming and choose to move to cities instead.
Experts believe that current market practices leave farmers vulnerable. Even during periods of high coffee prices, many farmers struggle to make a living. Morrocchi notes that farmers feel trapped in a cycle they can’t escape. The current circumstances can be traced back to historical injustices, including the legacies of slavery and colonialism, which set up an exploitative system that still affects these communities today.
Looking ahead, researchers are exploring other coffee varieties like stenophylla, which can withstand higher temperatures while maintaining a similar flavor to arabica. The global interest in robusta coffee is also increasing, representing over 45% of global coffee production today compared to 25% in the early 1990s. Unlike arabica, robusta has a stronger, more bitter taste but is cheaper to grow and can thrive in challenging conditions.
Andrés Montenegro from the Specialty Coffee Association sees potential for robusta coffee if marketed well. He mentions innovations in processing that improve flavor, encouraging consumers to pay premium prices for these new beans. There’s also a trend toward synthetic coffee made from plant-based ingredients, which tastes surprisingly close to the real thing and has piqued consumer interest.
While arabica coffee will likely remain available for years, the landscape of coffee may change significantly. As more varieties enter the market, coffee drinkers will need to expand their tastes. Shawn Steiman warns that experiencing new flavors will be essential as the coffee sector adapts to ongoing challenges.
