Study Reveals Wildfire Smoke Could Lead to Hundreds of Extra Deaths Annually in San Diego County by 2050

New research highlights that San Diego County experiences lower wildfire smoke exposure than many other regions in California. Marshall Burke, an environmental social sciences professor at Stanford, notes that the county benefits from coastal winds that help disperse smoke. However, even with this advantage, the area has seen slight but meaningful increases in respiratory issues and death rates related to smoke exposure.

According to a recent study in Nature, researchers from Stanford, UC San Diego, and other institutions warn that, without proactive measures, wildfire smoke could lead to an additional 71,400 deaths annually across the U.S. by 2050. For San Diego, this could mean hundreds more deaths each year.

Carlos Gould, an assistant professor at UCSD, emphasizes that although San Diego has a mild climate, the health impacts of smoke exposure cannot be ignored. The study analyzed years of U.S. death records and wildfire data, using advanced methods like satellite tracking to understand the future impacts of climate change on wildfires.

The findings suggest that California might face between 6,700 and 7,900 additional deaths due to wildfire smoke by 2050, a significant jump from current figures. San Diego could see its annual excess deaths rise from around 130 to between 480 and 590. These predictions are based on different future climate scenarios, highlighted by research methods from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Interestingly, areas with minimal smoke exposure, like San Diego, are also reporting health challenges. Over the past five years, the county had an average smoke concentration of 0.42 micrograms per cubic meter, which is considered low. For context, Mono County, facing more severe wildfire risks, had an average concentration of 4.73 micrograms per cubic meter.

In 2020, San Diego experienced a spike in smoke, leading to increased mortality and emergency visits for smoke-related asthma. During a peak smoke event, emergency department visits surged by 60% for asthma cases. That same year, wildfires burned over 16,000 acres near Alpine, marking one of California’s most severe fire seasons.

Currently, San Diego County has experienced over two dozen wildfires this year alone. Trends indicate that conditions for wildfires are worsening, especially in Southern California, where fire weather days are increasing due to heat and dryness.

Dr. Rajat Suri, a pulmonary specialist at UC San Diego Health, explains that wildfires impact local healthcare resources significantly. Patients with chronic respiratory conditions are particularly vulnerable, and smoke from distant fires also affects local health.

To mitigate these effects, experts stress the importance of adapting to wildfire smoke hazards. Suggested measures include better fuel management and public education to help residents understand and protect themselves from smoke pollution.

Overall, staying informed and prepared can make a difference in the health of communities facing the ongoing threat of wildfires.

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