Exposing the Truth: Fact-Checking Trump Administration’s Claims on Climate Change and Agriculture

A draft report from the Trump administration’s Department of Energy (DOE) suggests that higher levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) could be good for farming. However, many climate experts disagree. They argue that rising CO2 levels contribute to climate change, which threatens agriculture and raises food prices.

The misleading claims in the DOE report were based on the work of less credible experts. When the report faced legal challenges, the DOE disbanded the group responsible for it. Following this, the Environmental Protection Agency cited the report to support its proposal to roll back earlier protections established under the Obama administration.

The agency claimed that more CO2 leads to increased food production, but this oversimplifies the reality. While plants do absorb CO2, the larger context is critical. When CO2 levels rise, they trap heat in the atmosphere, leading to extreme weather, including droughts and floods. These conditions stress crops, hindering growth and productivity.

To explore how CO2 affects crops, scientists conduct free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments. A 2020 study analyzed 30 years of FACE findings, revealing that increased CO2 may boost crop yields only under ideal conditions. In reality, when climate stressors are present, these benefits disappear.

Farmers can adapt to some climate challenges by changing crop types or cultivation methods. However, a recent study found that even a small increase in global temperatures can significantly reduce crop yields across key staples like wheat, corn, and soybeans. For instance, experts estimate that a 1°C rise could decrease yields by about 4.4% of daily calorie needs for each person.

Changes in agricultural practices have allowed farmers to produce food on less land over the past 30 years. Still, climate change has led to a nearly 4% increase in global agricultural land to keep up with demand. This expansion contributes to further carbon emissions, as forests and other ecosystems are converted into farmland.

The cost of food may rise as extreme weather makes agriculture more difficult. According to a 2024 study, food inflation could spike by 1-3 percentage points annually due to projected temperatures. A 2022 study linked compound weather events to severe crop losses, with regions like the Midwest facing significant yield declines from simultaneous heat waves and droughts.

Experts unanimously agree: while higher CO2 levels can assist plant growth, the adverse effects of climate change outweigh these benefits. Continued temperature rise means greater challenges for farmers, leading to further decreases in crop yields and an increase in food prices. As stated by climate scientists, without significant reductions in carbon emissions, the agricultural consequences will intensify.

To better understand how CO2 impacts crops, visit the National Academies of Sciences for comprehensive scientific reviews.

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Dana Nuccitelli,food