There’s a popular saying among fans of billionaire Elon Musk: “Never bet against him.” But in the world of prediction markets, many are doing just that—and winning big.
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to wager on Musk’s bold claims, which often remain unfulfilled. People are betting that Musk won’t succeed with projects like his robotaxi service in California or his idea for a new political party. For instance, one bettor, David Bensoussan, placed almost $10,000 on the notion that Musk wouldn’t create a political party during a spat with former President Donald Trump last summer. He later profited from that bet when Musk didn’t follow through.
Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, has made countless ambitious pronouncements over the years. However, many of these promises have fallen short, especially regarding self-driving cars. His patterns of over-promising and under-delivering have become something of a meme.
David describes Musk’s approach as having “poor impulse control.” He believes Musk often exaggerates timelines, leading fans and investors to be overly optimistic. This skepticism contrasts sharply with Musk’s die-hard supporters who urge others not to bet against him.
Koleman Strumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest University, studies prediction markets and notes their unique role. “They provide a reality check,” he explains, highlighting that they often reveal a more cautious public view on Musk compared to the stock market, which has been forgiving of his delays.
The current surge in popularity of prediction markets can be explained partly by recent legal changes. A federal appeals court in 2024 approved betting on “event contracts,” allowing people to wager on political events and other outcomes.
Statistics show that unless something changes, Musk’s ambitious timelines may face further scrutiny. For example, the prediction markets give only a 14.5% chance that Tesla will release its humanoid robot, Optimus, this year.
New betting topics regularly appear. Musk’s activities frequently make headlines, whether over his thoughts on acquiring Ryanair or Twitter predictions. As of now, both Kalshi and Polymarket host numerous bets related to Musk, much more than for other public figures.
User reactions on social media reflect this growing trend. Recent tweets from Musk have even influenced betting odds. For instance, when Musk mentioned that a robotaxi service would be a great opportunity, odds on his success surged—yet he later rolled out a service that did not meet the betting platform’s definitions.
Overall, many bettors have learned to bet against Musk. One such bettor, a university student named Max, spends hours researching these markets. “You’re often better off betting against him,” he remarks, underscoring that Musk’s fans frequently support his overly optimistic visions.
Prediction markets keep evolving, providing significant insights into public expectations and the potential for reality to compete with marketing hype. The engaging dynamic of real-time betting on Musk means he’s constantly being scrutinized, fueling a discourse that combines finance, popular culture, and technology.
For those curious about this fascinating intersection of technology and speculation, check out more on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
