Global warming is happening faster than we thought—twice as fast as in earlier decades. If this keeps up, we could hit the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5°C by 2028, much sooner than anticipated.
Research from Stefan Rahmstorf at the University of Potsdam shows that Earth was warming by about 0.18°C each decade until 2013-14. Now, it’s heating up by 0.36°C a decade. “Every tenth of a degree counts,” says Rahmstorf, stressing that even small increases worsen extreme weather and threaten ecosystems. While many countries are working to slow global warming, it’s concerning that the trend is speeding up.
In 2023, scientists debated whether this acceleration was due to climate change or natural fluctuations like the El Niño effect, which can temporarily raise temperatures. Rahmstorf’s team found a notable speed-up in warming, with a confidence level of 98%. They analyzed several datasets, some suggesting we could already reach the 1.5°C threshold based on current averages.
The stakes are high. Coral reefs are already collapsing, and surpassing 1.5°C could trigger disastrous changes, like the irreversible melting of Greenland and the Amazon rainforest dieback.
According to experts, the recent acceleration may stem from a crackdown on sulfur dioxide emissions from ships. While this improves air quality, it also removes a cooling effect that had been masking some of the warming. As we transition away from fossil fuels, we may see short-term slowdowns in warming, but it remains unclear how significant these changes will be.
Research also considered volcanic eruptions and solar radiation cycles that can influence temperatures. However, some experts, like Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth, warn that we might be slightly overestimating the acceleration due to these factors. “We have solid evidence for acceleration, even if we don’t know exactly how much,” he notes. More data over the coming years will help clarify this.
The fast pace of warming signals an urgent need for global cooperation to tackle climate change. As communities face increasing threats from extreme weather, understanding these trends can guide effective action. As Rahmstorf puts it, “The world is trying to halt global warming, and that’s why this acceleration is a major concern.”
For more detailed insights, you can explore the findings from the [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research](https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/stefan/homepage).
Source link
Antarctica,Paris climate summit,climate,global warming,The Amazon rainforest,Greenland
