Parts of a NASA satellite are expected to crash back to Earth soon, and the agency warns it’s a rare event. The Van Allen Probe A, launched in 2012 to study space radiation, will re-enter our atmosphere around 7:45 PM EDT. Although the probe weighs about 1,323 pounds, most of it will burn up upon re-entry. However, some small pieces might survive the fall.
The U.S. Space Force estimates that there is a 1 in 4,200 chance that someone somewhere on Earth could be hurt. While that sounds alarming, it’s important to note that the vast majority of our planet is covered in water, which means the odds are heavily in favor of safety.
NASA reassured the public that they are monitoring this situation closely and will provide updates. Interestingly, reports suggest that around 5,400 tons of debris have made it to Earth’s surface over the past four decades, but very few incidents have resulted in injuries. For context, in 2011, a study showed the chances of being struck by falling debris were around 1 in 3,200, which is still extremely low for any individual. Mark Matney, an expert at NASA, emphasized that the risk is one in several trillion for an average person.
One notable case involved Lottie Williams from Oklahoma, who was the only confirmed person to have been struck by space debris. In January 1997, she was walking in a park when a chunk of metal hit her shoulder. Thankfully, she wasn’t hurt, but it highlights how rare these occurrences truly are.
Interestingly, a meteorite recently crashed through a roof in Germany, reminding us that while we often hear about satellites, meteors enter our atmosphere daily. Each year, an estimated 15,000 to 17,000 meteorites reach Earth, although most land in the ocean.
Van Allen Probe A was part of twin probes designed to explore radiation belts around Earth. They were both deactivated in 2019 after running out of fuel. Early predictions about their re-entry timeline have shifted; the second probe’s return is not expected until the end of this decade.
Debris from satellites and spacecraft may seem alarming, but the chances of harm are exceedingly slim, especially in our water-covered world.
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