Maximo Torero, the chief economist at the FAO, has raised alarms about the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. He warns that if the situation doesn’t improve, we could face a worldwide agricultural disaster. The unrest between the US and Iran, which started in February 2026, has led to rising tensions, and while there’s a fragile ceasefire, operations in the area remain risky.
Shipping through the Strait is vital for global food supplies. Reports suggest that 20-45% of essential agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers and grains, depend on safe passage through this waterway. Without these materials, farmers won’t be able to produce enough food. This could mean higher food prices for consumers and increased inflation, echoing the economic challenges seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
A recent forecast from Rabobank suggests that food prices in Europe may continue to rise throughout 2026, mainly due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting various costs, from production to packaging.
Torero has pointed out the urgency of the situation. Countries most vulnerable to food shortages are facing a tightening timeline as planting seasons approach. The FAO has urged nations to avoid restricting exports of food and energy. They suggest turning to multilateral financial institutions to help countries secure essential fertilizers quickly.
The conflict is causing significant disruptions in food and beverage (F&B) sectors worldwide. Fertilizer and energy costs are soaring, which could lead to increases in staple food prices. Many ships are currently stuck in and around the Strait of Hormuz, further complicating the logistics of food supply chains.
In light of these challenges, many in the F&B sector might consider sourcing locally to reduce reliance on international trade. This could help mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions. Experts like Lauren Bresnahan from Cargill emphasize that the global food system is more fragile than policymakers realize.
The FAO’s latest Food Price Index indicates that while food supplies are currently stable, pressure is mounting. Farmers may soon have to make tough choices about what and how to plant, given the uncertainty around fertilizer availability.
This situation highlights the need for swift action. Current strategies could influence food security and economic stability for years to come. Understanding how interconnected these factors are is crucial for developing resilient solutions for global food systems moving forward.
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Strait Of Hormuz Crisis, Global Agrifood Catastrophe, UN FAO
