A new study reveals a startling truth about the safety of our growing satellite networks. If satellite operators lose control during a big disruption, a major collision in space could happen in just 2.8 days.
This risk doesn’t come from satellites colliding directly during a solar storm. Instead, it arises when storms disrupt tracking and commands, making it tough to avoid collisions. With the increase in low Earth orbit satellites—especially large networks like Starlink—this congestion makes the situation riskier. Update your satellite knowledge here: NASA.
Sarah Thiele, who led the research at Princeton University, introduced a term called the Collision Realization And Significant Harm (CRASH) Clock. This metric gauges how quickly a severe collision could occur if operators could no longer manage satelitles. They found that, as of June 2025, without commands for maneuvering, a catastrophic impact could happen in just days—a stark change from 2018 when that risk was measured at 164 days.
Satellites depend on constant management to stay on course. For instance, SpaceX’s Starlink network conducted over 144,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in just six months. That’s about 41 maneuvers per satellite per year. So when a solar storm occurs, and atmospheric conditions change, it becomes hard to track these satellites. The May 2024 Gannon Storm forced nearly half of low Earth orbit satellites to shift position due to rising drag from an expanding atmosphere.
Understanding why a single satellite collision matters is essential. A high-speed crash can generate thousands of debris fragments, each a new hazard for other satellites. Historical examples of debris creation include China’s anti-satellite test in 2007 and a major collision in 2009. Today, dense satellite networks like Starlink pose even greater risks, as their orbit levels are now more crowded than previously thought.
The study emphasized that close encounters between satellites are frequent, occurring every 36 seconds. While not all of these close calls lead to collisions, they highlight how vital precise satellite management has become.
The growing risk from solar storms is real. Major storms can disrupt satellite operations and communications, underscoring our dependence on these systems. If a storm similar to the Carrington Event of 1859 occurred today, the impacts on our busy satellite environment would be serious.
The researchers don’t advocate for the removal of satellites but stress the need for better control. Low Earth orbit is becoming increasingly reliant on precise coordination, and any disruption could allow a significant collision to occur within just days.
For more details on this research, check the official publication: “An orbital house of cards: Frequent megaconstellation close conjunctions” by Sarah Thiele and others, available on arXiv.
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Astrophysics,Satellites,Solar Storms,Space Debris,Space Weather
