President Donald Trump’s political journey has heavily relied on a key group: White voters without college degrees. This group has stood as a core part of his support base, consistently backing him in all three of his presidential campaigns. However, recent developments show that this support may be slipping.
American politics is increasingly divided along educational lines. Voters with college degrees tend to favor Democrats, while those without lean towards Republicans. Notably, around two-thirds of non-college-educated Whites backed Trump in his previous elections. Yet, with his approval ratings dropping, signs point to a shift in this demographic’s loyalty.
A recent CNN poll reveals that over half of non-college-educated White Americans now disapprove of Trump. This trend isn’t isolated. Similar findings have emerged from various polling sources, including Fox News, NPR, and Pew Research, indicating that disapproval rates hover around the 51% to 54% mark.
Some polls even suggest Trump is losing ground faster than ever. In February 2025, 63% of this group approved of his performance; that approval has since plummeted to 49%. Furthermore, a CBS poll shows a more drastic decline, dropping from 68% approval to 46%. Such a drop is unprecedented for Trump among this demographic, marking a significant change from previous elections where disapproval never crossed 47%.
Why are voters turning away? Economic concerns are a major factor. Many feel Trump’s policies have worsened their financial situations. In a recent CNN poll, 56% reported that his policies have negatively impacted the economy. Furthermore, 67% believe the ongoing conflict in Iran is affecting their finances, while 56% think Trump’s tariffs have hurt more than helped.
- 56% say Trump’s policies have made economic conditions worse.
- 67% feel the Iran war has negatively impacted their financial well-being.
- 60% believe Trump’s politics are causing short-term economic harm.
- A majority thinks Trump cares little about their problems.
The important question now is how these trends will affect the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. Though it’s unlikely this group will swing to the Democrats, a shift in Republican support could have serious implications. Historically, Trump’s margin among these voters has been around 34 to 37 points. However, current data shows the GOP’s lead has shrunk to about 17 points.
Currently, Republicans hold an average of 55% support, while Democrats sit at 38%, but this is a stark decline from earlier performances, especially in the 2022 midterms when the GOP led by 34 points. If support dips below 60%, it could reshape the political landscape significantly, marking a turning point for the Republican Party.
Although the general election is several months away, time is still on Trump’s side to regain some of this lost support. Yet, as of now, both he and the Republican Party face notable challenges with a crucial part of their voter base.
