Xavier Becerra, the former state Attorney General, is leading in the upcoming gubernatorial primary according to a recent Emerson College Poll. He has 28% support, putting him ahead of billionaire Tom Steyer at 22% and conservative commentator Steve Hilton at 21%.
Chad Bianco, the Republican Sheriff of Riverside County, is at 12%. Other Democrats, like Katie Porter and San José Mayor Matt Mahan, are trailing with 5% each. Becerra is particularly popular among key groups: 44% of Democrats and 36% of both Hispanics and women back him.
Hilton, on the other hand, is dominating among Republicans with 59% support compared to Bianco’s 29%. Steyer is favored by younger voters, particularly those under 30, with 36%.
The primary is significant; the top two candidates, regardless of party, will proceed to the general election in November. According to Spencer Kimball, from Emerson College Polling, if Bianco loses ground, Hilton could gain an edge. For Steyer to make it, he must engage younger voters while keeping Becerra’s growing support from eating into his base.
Interestingly, the poll reveals that most voters seem set in their choices, with 75% saying they will definitely vote for who they picked. Only 4% were undecided. Recent polling from May showed Becerra’s support increased by 9 percentage points in just a few weeks, while Steyer and Hilton rose by 5 and 4 points, respectively.
Political analysts note that voter turnout will play a crucial role in the final results. Recent surveys suggest that younger voters, who lean toward Steyer, are less likely to vote, which may affect his chances significantly. As the election date approaches, both campaigns will be ramping up efforts to engage voters.
This primary not only highlights the candidates’ immediate battle but also reflects changing dynamics in California’s electorate, particularly around issues like health care, education, and climate policy that resonate with the key constituencies each candidate is trying to target.
For the complete survey findings and insights, you can refer to Emerson College Polling’s official report here.
