Climate change is becoming more intense, and the cooling effects of La Niña are not likely to help as much in the future. This year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts an early summer with hotter temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. In fact, India just had its warmest February since 1901, alongside one of the driest winters in years.
The abnormal weather patterns are a combination of human-caused climate change and natural variability. Arpita Mondal, a climate expert from IIT Bombay, pointed out that rain normally cools the air down. However, this winter was exceptionally dry, which contributed to rising temperatures.
Raghu Murtugudde, another scientist from IIT Bombay, mentioned that warm and cold temperature shifts are influenced by jet streams—strong winds in the upper atmosphere that dictate weather patterns. According to Mondal, a shift in these winds before the monsoon is connected to the intensity and duration of heatwaves.
Climate patterns like El Niño and La Niña also play significant roles. Vimal Mishra, a professor specializing in civil engineering, explained that El Niño typically brings warmer springs while La Niña can lead to cooler weather. These patterns stem from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affects global weather by changing ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure.
Recently, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that the weak La Niña that appeared in December 2023 is expected to be brief. They also noted that temperatures from March 2024 to February 2025 are already above average, with sea surface temperatures in many areas remaining high.
Murtugudde remarked that the current conditions don’t fit the typical La Niña pattern, as warmer temperatures have persisted in critical areas. He noted that we are still trying to understand the reasons behind the record warming we saw in 2023.
Looking ahead, studies suggest that El Niño events may occur more frequently and with greater intensity. The ongoing 2023-24 El Niño is among the strongest recorded and is contributing to extreme weather globally. For India, the summer of 2024 recorded 536 heatwave days—the highest in the last 14 years. As Mishra warned, even in years with neutral ENSO conditions, severe heatwaves remain a concern, especially with early high temperatures reported for March.
The WMO predicts a 60% chance of neutral ENSO conditions between March and May 2025, but Mishra cautions that even La Niña may not provide much relief under current climate trends.
Check out this related article: Exploring Climate Change in India: Key Challenges and Its Impact on Communities
Source linkclimate change, global warming, la nina, el nino, warmer days, ENSO cycle
