Climate change is making summers in India hotter and more intense. Scientists warn that the cooling effects of La Niña won’t be enough to balance out the rising temperatures. This year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts an early summer with longer heatwaves. February marked the hottest month in India since 1901, combined with one of the driest winters we’ve seen in a long time.
Due to human-induced climate change, we are experiencing warmer winters and shorter springs. However, yearly weather patterns still influence our seasons. According to Arpita Mondal, an associate professor at IIT Bombay, this winter was unusually dry. “Rain cools the air and brings temperatures down,” she explained.
Another expert, Raghu Murtugudde, mentioned that the behavior of jet streams, which are strong winds in the upper atmosphere, plays a significant role in our weather. These jet streams shift and can cause extreme heat or cold. “A northward shift in these winds is linked to the intensity and length of heatwaves,” said Mondal.
The El Niño and La Niña cycles also affect our temperatures. Vimal Mishra, a civil engineering professor at IIT Gandhinagar, noted that during El Niño years, we might see warmer springs and high temperatures immediately after winter. In contrast, La Niña tends to bring cooler days.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently reported that a weak La Niña is likely to be short-lived. They had expected some cooling, but global temperatures remain unusually high. In fact, from March 2024 to February 2025, temperatures are running about 0.71°C above the average of 1990-2020.
Murtugudde pointed out that the current weather patterns might be linked to record-high temperatures in 2023. Studies suggest that future El Niño events will become more frequent and severe. The ongoing El Niño is among the five strongest ever recorded, leading to rising global temperatures and extreme weather conditions.
This summer, India experienced 536 heatwave days, the highest in 14 years. June was particularly brutal, being the hottest on record for the northwestern part of the country. Mishra stressed that even if this year’s conditions are neutral, we should expect harsh heatwaves because we’ve already started the year with high temperatures.
The WMO predicts a 60% chance of neutral conditions from March to May 2025, but Mishra warns that under climate change, El Niño could bring severe challenges, while La Niña may not provide any relief.
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Source linktemperature anomalies,La Nina,India heatwave,IMD predictions,IIT Bombay,global warming,extreme weather events,ENSO conditions,El Nino impact,climate change effects
