Global warming is changing our everyday lives. Storms, floods, wildfires, and droughts are now common in many places around the world. As temperatures rise, up to one-third of global food production could be at risk. A recent study in Nature Food sheds light on how climate change could affect food crops.
Researchers from Aalto University looked at the impact of temperature, rainfall, and dryness on 30 major food crops worldwide. They discovered that countries near the equator, known as low-latitude regions, will suffer much more than those farther away.
Depending on how much the planet warms, as much as half of the crops in low-latitude regions might become unfit for farming. These areas will also see a sharp decline in the variety of crops they can grow. “Losing diversity means fewer food options, which can threaten food security,” says Sara Heikonen, the lead researcher.
Critical crops such as rice, maize, wheat, potatoes, and soybeans, which together provide more than two-thirds of the world’s food energy, could be seriously affected. Likewise, tropical root crops like yam, vital for food security in poorer regions, are at risk. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa, if temperatures rise more than 3°C, nearly three-quarters of current crop production could be endangered.
In contrast, countries at mid and high latitudes may maintain their farmland, although the types of crops that thrive there could change. These regions might even diversify their crops. “For instance, growing temperate fruits, like pears, could become more popular in northern areas,” says Heikonen.
But even in places where conditions might improve, other challenges could arise. Professor Matti Kummu, a senior author of the study, points out that warming could bring new pests and extreme weather, complicating farming. “The picture isn’t simply positive or negative,” he explains.
In low-latitude regions, many of which face existing food security issues, the situation is more complicated. Kummu believes that there are still options for improvement. “In many African countries, crop yields are much lower than in similar areas elsewhere. With better access to fertilizers and irrigation, and by reducing food loss, these regions could boost their production,” he says. However, ongoing climate change adds uncertainty to these estimates. “Selecting the right crops and improving breeding methods will be essential. Yet, implementing these changes is the real challenge,” he adds.
Policymakers in low-latitude countries must focus on bridging current gaps. Meanwhile, those in mid- and high-latitude regions need to stay flexible. Climate change will shift how crops are produced there, and global food pressures will also have an impact. “To secure our food system in the future, we must both tackle climate change and adjust to its effects,” says Heikonen. “Even if the most drastic changes happen in equatorial regions, we all feel the repercussions through our interconnected food systems. It’s crucial to work together on these challenges.”
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