Tropical forests in the Americas face a significant challenge as they struggle to adapt to climate change. Research shows they are not keeping pace with the changes in temperature and rainfall, which raises concerns about their long-term survival.
This study involved over 100 scientists, led by Dr. Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez from the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute. Together, they analyzed data from 415 permanent forest plots that stretch from Mexico to southern Brazil, examining the traits of more than 250,000 trees.
Here are some key findings:
- Slow adaptation: Forests aren’t changing fast enough to match the rapid climate shifts.
- Survival strategies: Some tree species are thriving, while others are struggling. Factors like whether they are deciduous, how dense their wood is, leaf thickness, and drought tolerance play a big role in their survival.
- Elevation effects: Mountain forests are adapting more quickly than those in lowland areas, likely due to greater climate variability.
- Younger trees at risk: Younger trees are showing more notable changes, but overall, the forest composition remains mostly stable.
- Future challenges: By 2100, temperatures could rise by up to 4°C, and rainfall may drop by as much as 20%, pushing these forests closer to a tipping point.
Dr. Aguirre-Gutiérrez pointed out, “Tropical forests are incredibly diverse, yet their ability to adapt is limited. Understanding which traits help trees survive can guide our conservation efforts. Changes in the climate over the past few decades should have led to significant changes in tree communities, but the adaptations are not enough.”
He emphasized the importance of studying the traits that allow certain trees to survive while others do not. “If we know which species are thriving and their traits, we can make better decisions about conservation strategies and where to focus resources.”
Dr. Ted Feldpausch, a colleague from the University of Exeter, added, “While tropical forests can bounce back from disturbances, they are not adapting quickly enough to the rapid climate changes we are witnessing now. Our findings show these forests are changing only 8% as fast as they need to, which could threaten biodiversity and the forests’ role in global carbon cycling.”
The research underscores the urgent need for effective conservation strategies to support these crucial ecosystems as they face unprecedented challenges.
