Fears about the asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon seem to be unfounded, thanks to updated observations. Discovered in December 2024, this asteroid was initially labeled the “most dangerous” due to an estimated 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. But soon after, scientists reassessed, saying it had a 4.3% chance of impacting the Moon instead.
While there was no risk to Earth, a lunar collision could have sent debris into space, potentially affecting satellites that assist with navigation and communication. However, new findings show that 2024 YR4 will safely pass over the Moon, over 20,000 kilometers (about 12,400 miles) away.
Colin Snodgrass, an astronomy professor at the University of Edinburgh, shared, “It would’ve been an interesting experiment, but the risk of debris wasn’t something we wanted to explore.” He noted that some scientists might feel a bit let down by the news.
Astronomers initially thought they wouldn’t refine the asteroid’s trajectory until 2028, when it returned to Earth’s line of sight. Yet, a global team of researchers identified two five-hour windows in February when the James Webb Space Telescope could detect and track the asteroid. Dr. Andy Rivkin from Johns Hopkins University and MIT’s Prof. Julien de Wit emphasized that the Webb telescope was uniquely equipped to make such precise measurements.
This ability to track asteroids has improved with powerful telescopes like Webb and the upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory. Snodgrass remarked that while we might face more brief “scares,” the technology allows us to quickly confirm if there’s a real threat.
In response to recent findings, the European Space Agency stated, “The Moon is safe, and 2024 YR4 poses no danger. Our Planetary Defence team continues to track near-Earth objects to ensure we’re ready should a genuine threat arise.”
As we deepen our understanding of space threats, it’s clear that advancements in technology keep us better informed and prepared.
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