Australia’s Summer Forecast: La Niña, Rain Patterns, and the Impact of ‘The Blob’

This September was one for the record books—it’s now the third warmest on record globally. The World Meteorological Organization confirmed that 2024 is the hottest year on record for the south-west Pacific, an area that’s huge, covering over 10% of the Earth’s ocean.

The State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 report talks about serious issues we’re facing. We’ve seen a record number of tropical cyclones in the Philippines and threats to glaciers in Indonesia. Marine heatwaves are affecting about 40 million square kilometers of the ocean, which is alarming.

Back in Australia, sea surface temperatures have been extremely warm since last July, either hitting record highs or coming very close each month. This ongoing heatwave has led to widespread coral bleaching. Both the Great Barrier Reef and the Ningaloo Reef on opposite coasts are suffering significant damage.

In South Australia, an outbreak of harmful algal blooms, driven by the marine heatwave, is causing more problems. The microalgae Karenia mikimotoi have raised ocean temperatures by around 2.5 degrees along the coast, resulting in unusual fish kills, including thousands of pilchards found washed ashore on the Gold Coast just last weekend.

Marine biologist Dr. Leonardo Guida noted that these fish deaths are likely linked to temperature increases and low oxygen levels in the water. Flood risks are also rising due to high water levels and moist soil in Queensland, New South Wales, and northern Victoria. “It only takes one tropical cyclone to seriously impact communities,” said meteorologist Hines, highlighting the danger during cyclone season from November to April.

Looking ahead, we’re likely to see above-average daytime temperatures across much of Australia this summer, especially in Victoria and Tasmania. Hines mentioned that overnight temperatures are expected to be unusually high almost everywhere, with northern and eastern areas facing the greatest risk.

As we deal with these challenges, it’s clear that climate change is having a real impact on our environment and daily lives. Awareness and action are crucial in addressing these pressing issues.

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