Australia’s Summer Forecast: What ‘The Blob,’ Rainfall, and La Niña Mean for You

Sea-surface temperatures around the world are hitting new heights. This September was the third warmest ever recorded. According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2024 is already the hottest year for the south-west Pacific, which covers a significant part of the global ocean.

The State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2024 report highlights alarming impacts. Tropical cyclones have been relentless in the Philippines, and a glacier in Indonesia is facing serious threats. Recently, marine heatwaves expanded over nearly 40 million square kilometers, affecting more than 10% of the world’s oceans.

In Australia, sea surface temperatures have either been the hottest or second hottest for every month since July of last year. The ongoing marine heatwave is leading to widespread coral bleaching, severely impacting ecosystems on both the Great Barrier Reef and Ningaloo coast.

South Australia faces additional challenges with algal blooms caused by a microalgae called Karenia mikimotoi. This has been linked to increased sea temperatures, which rose by 2.5 degrees along the coast. The heatwave has also resulted in mass fish kills, including thousands of pilchards found washed up on the Gold Coast last weekend. Marine biologist Dr. Leonardo Guida mentioned to The Guardian that these fish deaths appear to be related to low oxygen levels in the warm water.

Weather patterns are showing complex shifts. With high soil moisture, there’s an increased risk of river flooding in Queensland, New South Wales, and northern Victoria. Hines pointed out that tropical cyclones are a regular threat from November to April, and just one storm can have a huge impact on communities with strong winds and heavy rains.

Expect warmer daytime temperatures across much of Australia, especially in parts of Victoria and Tasmania. There’s also a high likelihood of above-average overnight temperatures nationwide, particularly in the north and east. Weather patterns like these are becoming more common, raising concerns about climate change impacts on our environment.

Understanding these changes is crucial for preparing for the future. Let’s keep an eye on how these trends develop, as they will shape our ecosystems and communities in profound ways.

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