China’s Lunar Ambitions: Will They Outpace the U.S. in the Race Back to the Moon?

Ars: When looking at the future, who seems better set to lead in cislunar space: the United States or China?

Cheng: On paper, the US has clear advantages. Our economy is larger, and we have more experience in space travel. We’ve developed reusable space launch systems. Yet, the US struggles with consistency in its space goals. Under the Trump administration, we aimed to land on the Moon by 2024, but now it’s 2025, and plans have shifted again—this time toward Mars. Such flipping back and forth hampers scientific progress.

Meanwhile, China follows a steady, long-term plan. They focus on specific goals, like their human spaceflight program and building a space station, and they stick with these aims for decades. I expect China will send astronauts to the Moon by 2030 and establish more lunar facilities. They’ll have the necessary infrastructure to support these efforts, including communication systems. The US will likely achieve another Moon landing soon, but what happens after that? Will the Lunar Gateway project materialize? And how frequently will the US return to the Moon compared to China?

Ars: What advice would you give to the Trump administration to compete with China in this lunar race?

Cheng: They need to commit to clear goals, whether that’s returning to the Moon or heading to Mars. Mobilizing Congress and gaining public support are crucial steps. Funding is essential, but so is strong leadership, like involving the Vice President and the National Space Council. Right now, there’s a lack of clear direction in space policy, which makes it hard for businesses to align their efforts with government goals.

If the administration wants to rely more on entrepreneurial firms—a sensible approach—they need to demonstrate that commitment. Offering incentives similar to the Ansari and X-prizes could spark innovation and growth in the industry. Engaging the public and businesses is key to creating a sustainable, competitive space agenda.

According to a recent NASA report, only about 60% of Americans believe that the US should prioritize space exploration. This sentiment highlights the challenge of rallying public and political support. As trends shift, harnessing public interest through education and outreach could make a significant difference.

In conclusion, the race for cislunar space is not just about technology but also about vision and consistency. Both countries have their strengths, but how they choose to navigate their future goals will determine the winner.

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