China’s Vegetable Oil Demand Set to Decline 4.1%: What This Means for the Market and Consumers

According to a recent report from the USDA, China’s demand for vegetable oil for food is set to drop by 4.1% in 2025/26, totaling around 34.7 million tonnes. This forecast reflects significant changes in consumer behavior and demographic shifts.

Several factors contribute to this decline. Economic concerns have led to reduced dining out, with people opting for home cooking instead. Rising health awareness is making consumers cautious about their oil intake. Additionally, China’s population is shrinking and aging, further impacting vegetable oil consumption.

China’s GDP growth rate was reported at 5.3% in the first half of 2025. Though food service revenue reached CNY 2.75 trillion (about $387 billion), the growth has slowed, increasing just 0.9% in June. Stricter government regulations on official dining are also expected to hit the hospitality sector, making vegetable oil use in restaurants decline.

Age plays a significant role as well. Reports show that, by 2024, about 22% of the population is over 60, and older individuals tend to consume less vegetable oil. Despite a slight rise in the birth rate in 2024, the population’s overall decline indicates long-term challenges.

Nutrition experts in China have expressed concern over high vegetable oil consumption. They encourage consumers to be mindful of their intake, especially given that the bakery industry has been a significant driver of recent oil usage.

The August CASDE report aligns with the USDA’s findings, forecasting overall vegetable oil consumption at around 34.11 million tonnes, down from 34.85 million the previous year. For feed use, the estimate stays at 1.3 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous year.

While some sectors may see decreased vegetable oil consumption, others are stable. However, limited imports—reduced to 6.4 million tonnes—are due to adequate domestic oilseed processing and weaker overall consumption. Rising palm oil prices in countries like Indonesia and Malaysia have also factored into these shifts.

In conclusion, China’s vegetable oil demand reflects broader economic and demographic trends. Experts emphasize the need for mindful consumption as public health becomes an increasing concern in the evolving landscape of food habits.

For more information on global vegetable oil trends, check out the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service reports.

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