Climate change is silently changing where people can live safely. As seas rise, crops fail, and natural disasters become more common, it’s clear that the effects of climate change are serious. But when people talk about why they move, climate often doesn’t come up.
Hélène Benveniste from Stanford’s Doerr School of Sustainability is working to understand this. She explores how climate impacts migration patterns, but she finds it’s not a simple story. “Climate change influences pre-existing migration flows,” she explains. Some people are pushed to leave, while others are stuck where they are.
A recent trend shows that those with middle incomes are more likely to relocate due to climate issues. They have the means to move, while the poorest often wish to leave but cannot afford it. In wealthier communities, people can adapt better. For instance, during the wildfires in Los Angeles in January 2025, some homeowners hired private firefighting teams, while others lost their homes. Money can make a big difference in these situations.
This gap between wanting to move and being able to is increasing. Benveniste and her colleagues call this “involuntary immobility.” Their research shows that lower-income populations might see a decline in migration due to climate change. The reasons include crop failures and lost wages that make it impossible to travel.
Take Nepal as an example. Many families rely on sending a worker abroad to help support themselves. But when drought strikes, they lose both local income and the funds needed for migration. This creates a cycle of vulnerability.
Where people end up also matters. A study with Princeton University found that many migrants from lower-income countries actually end up in more hazardous environments than where they started. Stricter border laws can leave people stuck in higher-risk areas, intensifying their struggles.
The stakes are high. By mid-century, many refugee camps will face increasingly dangerous heat. Some areas might see double the number of extremely hot days, putting even healthy people at risk. Camps that were meant to be temporary are becoming permanent homes, requiring new strategies for cooling and shelter.
Nevertheless, there are signs of progress. In 2023, Australia and Tuvalu formed an agreement to allow Tuvaluans to gain permanent residency in Australia as their homeland faces rising seas. While this deal has its critics, it sets a precedent for linking climate risk to migration. The UN is also working to prepare for climate-related movement, but Benveniste notes that comprehensive international policies are still lacking.
It’s crucial to rethink how we approach climate mobility. Governments need to be aware of rising immobility and create support programs that empower people, whether by enabling safe migration or enhancing local resilience. Policies should also consider the impact of border restrictions on climate risk. Public resources, like cooling centers and disaster insurance, should be available to those who can’t afford private solutions.
Benveniste’s work reminds us that staying put can be as telling as moving. Climate change will create more people who have to leave and more who stay because they cannot. Understanding the nuances of who moves, who stays, and why is essential for effective policy making.
For further reading on these complex issues, check out the study published in Nature Communications here.