Could Asteroid 2024 YR4 Strike the Moon? What You Need to Know!

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been in the news due to concerns about its potential impact. Earlier this year, there was a 3% chance it could hit Earth in 2032. However, further observations have now ruled that out. Instead, it’s now believed there’s a 4% chance of it colliding with the moon on December 22, 2032.

Discovered on December 27, 2024, using the ATLAS telescope in Chile, this asteroid measures between 53 and 67 meters in diameter. On average, an asteroid of this size strikes Earth only once every few thousand years, often causing significant damage. The asteroid quickly climbed the European Space Agency’s (ESA) risk list, prompting a global response for planetary defense.

NASA and ESA’s advanced instruments, such as the James Webb Space Telescope, helped refine its trajectory, which led to ruling out an Earth impact by March 2025.

One reason 2024 YR4 wasn’t detected sooner is its approach from the direction of the sun. Ground-based telescopes can’t see objects near the sun due to its brightness. This gap in detection was highlighted by the Chelyabinsk meteor incident in 2013, which injured around 1,500 people when it exploded over Russia.

The upcoming NEOMIR mission, set for launch in the early 2030s, aims to fill this detection gap. By using infrared light, it can more accurately spot asteroids before they become a threat. “We had simulations that showed NEOMIR could have found 2024 YR4 a month earlier than current methods,” says Richard Moissl from ESA’s Planetary Defense Office. This would have offered more time for analysis and risk assessment.

As it stands, there’s a 96% chance that 2024 YR4 won’t hit the moon in December 2032. But until it reappears in June 2028, this likelihood remains uncertain. If it does hit the moon, it could create a new crater, though its exact effects are unpredictable.

As we embark on more lunar exploration, monitoring potential impacts is crucial, especially for safeguarding astronauts and future lunar infrastructure. ESA’s ongoing work in planetary defense, including the NEOMIR mission and others, aims to enhance our readiness against such cosmic threats.

For more about ESA’s planetary defense initiatives, check out their [Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre](https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Near-Earth_Object_Coordination_Centre).

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