Interestingly, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket could make an unexpected trip to the Moon before its Starship ever does. Instead of landing gently, the Falcon 9 might crash into the Moon, specifically into a crater named Einstein, at an astonishing speed.
Bill Gray, an astronomer who developed tracking software called Project Pluto, made this prediction. He studied the Falcon 9 rocket, which has been circling in a wide elliptical orbit since it launched in January 2025. That mission sent two lunar landers, Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost and ispace’s Resilience, toward the Moon.
The rocket’s upper stage was supposed to return to Earth, but instead, it got stuck in orbit. Gray estimates it will hit the Moon’s surface on August 5 at 2:44 a.m. ET. This won’t be a gentle landing; it will collide at around 5,400 miles per hour (about 8,700 kilometers per hour)—that’s seven times the speed of sound!
With over 1,000 observations of the Falcon 9 now, Gray understands its wobbly orbit well. At its closest point, the rocket is about 137,000 miles from Earth. When it’s farthest, it stretches out to roughly 310,000 miles in cislunar space. Gray notes that the paths of the Moon and the rocket will intersect perfectly on August 5.
Gray argues that this Falcon 9 crash could have some minor scientific value. He believes it highlights a growing concern: the issue of space junk. “It doesn’t pose any danger, but it does show a certain carelessness in how we handle leftover space hardware,” he remarks.
This isn’t the first time a human-made object has been predicted to crash on the Moon. Gray previously identified China’s Chang’e-5 T1 upper stage, which impacted in March 2022. He anticipates that the Falcon 9 will likely strike near the Einstein crater, although he will provide a more precise prediction as the impact date gets closer.
While the crash won’t be visible through ground telescopes, it will create a small crater that the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, a satellite currently mapping the Moon, should be able to capture in images. Gray promises to have detailed predictions ready just before the impact.
As for SpaceX, they didn’t anticipate that their Falcon 9 would reach the Moon first. Their Starship, which is supposed to land on the Moon for NASA’s Artemis missions, is running behind schedule. If it continues to lag, NASA might turn to other companies, like Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, to meet lunar deadlines.
This situation raises a broader conversation about space exploration logistics and managing space debris. With increased interest in lunar missions, experts emphasize the need for responsible practices to ensure our endeavors in space do not lead to more debris. As we aim for further exploration, considering the environmental impact of space technology is vital.
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Aerospace, blue origin, crater, Elon Musk, Falcon 9, Moon, SpaceX, Starship
