LONDON (AP) — As the U.S. and Russia advance in talks about the war, Ukraine’s presence is still missing. Meanwhile, European leaders are busy planning how to prevent future attacks from Moscow.
What started as quiet discussions is now becoming more public. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, key supporters of this initiative, are heading to Washington next week for talks with President Donald Trump.
Starmer emphasized that the success of this force depends heavily on support from the U.S. military. Convincing Trump to provide that backing could be challenging.
The main goal for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been NATO membership. While European NATO members support this ambition, the U.S. seems to have taken it off the table. Without NATO membership, Zelenskyy believes Ukraine might need over 100,000 European troops to prevent renewed conflict after a ceasefire.
However, Western officials clarify that the proposed force is more about reassurance than establishing a peacekeeping army along the 600-mile front line in eastern Ukraine.
The plan, backed by Britain and France, involves deploying fewer than 30,000 European troops near vital infrastructure, such as nuclear plants, while keeping them away from the front lines. Technology like drones will monitor the area, and air power stationed outside Ukraine, possibly in Poland or Romania, will be on standby to deter further aggression and to help resume commercial flights in Ukrainian airspace.
This support could include U.S. air power. Starmer stated, “There must be a U.S. backstop because a U.S. security guarantee is the only way to effectively deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again.”
What is the U.S. stance? Trump has criticized NATO allies for not contributing enough to their own security, prompting him to call for Europe to step up. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has indicated that there won’t be American troops sent to Ukraine but left the door open for logistical support. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s envoy on Ukraine, mentioned that all options should remain on the table, dependent on future peace talks.
There’s uncertainty about whether Ukraine will find the proposal acceptable. On the other hand, Russia has categorically rejected the idea of foreign troops being stationed there, labeling it as unacceptable.
As for European support, Britain, France, and the Nordic and Baltic countries — the closest NATO members to Russia — are most likely to contribute. Countries like Italy have restrictions on troop deployments, and some, like The Netherlands, would require parliamentary approval. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that Poland would not send troops to Ukraine, despite being a crucial logistics hub for them since the start of the invasion. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed concerns that discussions on a Europe-led security force are premature and insisted that NATO should remain the core of security efforts.
The viability of this plan hinges on any agreement reached to halt fighting. With approximately 600,000 Russian troops still in Ukraine, a ceasefire that leaves them in place invites future conflicts. Europe’s military capacity is limited, and experts believe deploying troops over an extended period could be challenging. For example, France has roughly 200,000 military personnel, while Britain has less than 150,000. Matthew Savill from the Royal United Services Institute suggests Europe may struggle to maintain a large force.
Peacekeeping missions in places like Cyprus and Lebanon have persisted for decades. Military expert Michael Clarke noted that if the plan is successful, it could last for 20 to 30 years. If it fails, conflict could resume within two years.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė acknowledged that the Trump administration’s critiques of Europe’s defense spending do hold some truth. “Russia is preparing for a long war,” she remarked, emphasizing the need for Europe to strengthen its own military capabilities to provide credible security guarantees.
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