As votes are counted in Germany, analysts are already pondering what the future government will look like.
To form a stable government, a party or coalition needs at least 316 seats in the Bundestag, which has 630 seats.
A coalition between the CDU and AfD is mathematically possible since they would together have 358 seats. However, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has made it clear that this option is off the table.
This situation leaves Olaf Scholz’s SPD as a potential partner. If CDU teams up with the SPD, they can reach 328 seats. For a stronger coalition, CDU could also bring in the Greens, pushing the total to 416 seats. But this collaboration seems unlikely, as CDU’s sister party, the CSU, has repeatedly rejected the idea of working with the Greens.
There’s also a theoretical option for a three-party coalition involving CDU, SPD, and the Left party. However, this is improbable due to significant ideological divides between the conservatives and the far-left.
Before the election, there were talks of a leftist coalition made up of SPD, Greens, and the Left party. Unfortunately, together, they cannot reach the required 316 seats either.
In the end, forming a government without the CDU seems impossible. Given the CDU’s strained relationships with the Greens and the Left, the SPD stands out as the most viable coalition partner. The key question now is whether SPD will be willing to join forces with CDU again, similar to their “Grand Coalition” under Angela Merkel.
