The Pacific Ocean provides more than half of the world’s tuna, and Kiribati is at the center of this thriving industry. Yet, rising water temperatures are putting this small island nation’s economy at risk.
Kiribati depends on selling fishing licenses to foreign vessels for over 70% of its government revenue. This is one of the highest percentages globally. Despite being only as large as New York City, Kiribati controls a massive Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) covering 3.4 million square kilometers, rich in tuna species.
Climate change threatens this economic lifeline. Tuna are very sensitive to temperature changes, responding to shifts as slight as a tenth of a degree Celsius. Research indicates that as waters warm, tuna may move eastward, potentially leaving Kiribati’s EEZ. This change would lead to fewer fishing licenses being sold to fleets from countries like Japan, China, and the US. Simon Diffey, a fisheries expert, points out that a significant portion of tuna on supermarket shelves comes from this region.
According to Diffey, Kiribati lacks the resources to diversify its economy, unlike some neighboring nations. “The highest ground in Kiribati is just two meters above sea level,” he notes, emphasizing the reliance on fisheries.
In 2024, Kiribati generated $137 million from fishing licenses. This income was crucial—making up almost three-quarters of government revenue from 2018 to 2022. However, the Ministry of Fisheries warns that by 2050, if global emissions stay high, the country could lose more than $10 million in annual license fees. Lower emissions may help stabilize tuna stocks within the EEZ, but uncertainty remains.
This situation impacts local food security, as people in Kiribati consume an average of 100 kg of fish yearly, a much higher rate than in countries like the US or Japan. The Pacific Community forecasts that local catches will decline regardless of emission levels, particularly affecting the Line Islands, where local fish stocks might decrease by two-thirds. Families are increasingly turning to expensive imported foods, compromising their nutrition as fish is a primary protein source.
In response to these challenges, the United Nations’ Green Climate Fund launched a $156.8 million project to help Kiribati and 13 other Pacific nations adapt to marine changes. The project aims to provide around four million nutritious meals annually.
To build a sustainable future, Kiribati is working on expanding canning facilities and exploring ocean farming options, including species like milkfish. The government is also looking into tourism and renewable energy to lessen its reliance on fishing. “Kiribati has reasons for optimism,” says Riibeta Abeta, the permanent secretary for the Ministry of Fisheries, as they seek new ways to thrive.
Overall, the future of Kiribati hinges on its ability to adapt quickly to environmental changes. By embracing new strategies, the nation may still secure its economic foundation.
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kiribati tuna economy, climate change pacific islands, tuna migration, pacific fishing licenses, kiribati food security
