How Geopolitical Conflicts Hinder Progress on Climate Change Solutions – Insights from npj Climate Action

During the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP) in Egypt, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the world’s response to climate change was faltering. He pointed to conflicts, like the war in Ukraine, as serious obstacles to tackling climate issues. Guterres stressed that the global focus must remain on climate change despite these crises, or we risk a future he described as “climate hell”.

The geopolitical landscape has grown more complicated, with conflicts disrupting efforts to reach a global consensus on environmental issues. This fragmentation isn’t new; it has been developing over several years and is reflected in scientific assessments, including those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). While much discussion centers on how climate change can lead to conflict, less attention has been given to how ongoing conflicts hinder climate action.

Research shows a strong Climate-Conflict nexus, which examines environmental changes that can lead to resource scarcity, displacement, and violence. However, the reverse—how violent conflicts affect climate initiatives—hasn’t been thoroughly explored. A report from the IPCC emphasized human security as impacted by climate change but stopped short of detailing how geopolitical tensions obstruct efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

In recent years, the impact of conflict on climate has become increasingly apparent. The ongoing war in Ukraine alone is estimated to have generated around 175 million tons of CO2 emissions in just two years. Military activities, such as emissions from military vehicles and the destruction of vital infrastructure, contribute significantly to this pollution. A 2023 report revealed that NATO’s military emissions had increased markedly, highlighting how war-related efforts can distract from necessary climate actions.

Moreover, conflicts divert attention and funds away from climate initiatives. For instance, military spending in NATO countries reached approximately $1.26 trillion in 2023, overshadowing climate funding for low-income countries. This discrepancy not only delays critical climate action but also perpetuates inequalities, particularly in nations already bearing the brunt of climate change effects.

The impact of media coverage cannot be overlooked either. As wars dominate the news cycle, climate issues often take a backseat. During the onset of the Ukraine war, mentions of climate change decreased sharply in Russian media, illustrating how conflicts can shape public discourse and diminish urgency around environmental issues.

Energy security is another area affected by conflict. Nations preoccupied with war may prioritize domestic fossil fuel production rather than transitioning to renewables. This was evident when the US’s energy strategy shifted towards increasing domestic oil and gas output due to the Russian invasion, a move echoed by global fossil fuel companies.

Collaboration across borders is vital for addressing climate change, as it is a global challenge that requires united efforts. Yet, political tensions often create obstacles to these collaborations. For example, the joint climate initiatives between China and the US were canceled due to rising political hostilities, reinforcing a cycle where conflict impedes climate negotiation efforts.

In summary, the relationship between conflict and climate change requires urgent attention. Ongoing geopolitical strife not only exacerbates climate issues but also stalls the progress essential for mitigating their impacts. Building a clear understanding of this Conflict-Climate nexus is critical for developing strategies that address both challenges concurrently. As the climate crisis worsens, we must not allow the siren calls of conflict to drown out the conversation about a sustainable future.

For further reading on the intersections of climate change and conflict, the IPCC’s latest assessment reports provide a comprehensive look at these complex dynamics.

Check out this related article: Discover How Oceans Can Combat Climate Change and Restore Our Planet

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Climate-change mitigation,Socioeconomic scenarios,Climate Change,Climate Change Management and Policy,Social Policy,Environmental Economics,Environmental Politics