Tens of millions of Iranians have faced an unprecedented internet blackout since US-Israeli strikes began on February 28. This is believed to be the longest state-imposed internet shutdown in the world.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has approved a plan to bring limited internet access back to selected businesses and institutions, leaving the general public largely disconnected. The rollout will first benefit commercial card holders, and then extend to sectors involved in production and trade. Officials frame this as a way to manage the economy.
However, critics argue this creates a two-tier internet system. Leaked documents suggest the government may be considering long-lasting restrictions, raising alarms among observers.
Neda Bolourchi, director of the Public Affairs Alliance of Iranian Americans, views this as more than just a response to wartime pressures. She believes it’s part of a long-planned strategy that the war has made easier to implement. Bolourchi predicts that the internet landscape will not return to its former state anytime soon.
On the other hand, cybersecurity expert Amin Sabeti questions the sustainability of this model. He argues that while wartime conditions allow for extraordinary measures, Iran is not North Korea and could struggle to maintain such tight controls.
The economic impact of the blackout is already significant. For many, platforms like Instagram and WhatsApp aren’t just social media; they are vital for business, education, and communication. Bolourchi warns that while the government may perceive this model as manageable, the consequences for average families could be severe.
If these online resources are restricted, discontent is likely to grow. Sabeti points out the dangers for the ruling elite—taking away previously granted access could trigger widespread protests.
Holly Dagres, a senior fellow focused on Iranian society, underscores that the blackout is part of a broader struggle for information control. The Islamic Republic limits access to the outside world to silence dissenting voices. This situation has hit entrepreneurs, especially women-led businesses, hard, as they rely on social media for income.
This tightening control could lead to increased surveillance. A permission-based internet would allow the government to monitor citizens more closely, leading to self-censorship. Dagres suggests that the government might offer small concessions to normalize the blackout while maintaining its grip on power.
While technologies that could provide more direct internet access are not yet practical solutions in Iran, this new internet plan may solve one issue for the government—keeping strategic sectors online. Yet, by limiting access for the wider population, resentment may only grow.
In a nation where so many lives, jobs, and relationships are intertwined with the internet, these restrictions might offer short-term benefits for the government but could lead to significant pushback in the future.
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