The Trump administration believes that its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is effective, with several ships already turning back. One notable example is a Chinese-owned tanker, the Rich Starry, which reversed course in the Gulf of Oman on Wednesday.
On the other hand, Iran asserts its control over the strait, declaring it will decide which ships can pass. They warned that if their ports are threatened, “no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will remain safe.” Given the current situation, Iran seems poised to strengthen its long-term influence over this critical waterway.
For years, Iran has hinted it might use the Strait of Hormuz to its advantage. Now, amid rising tensions with the U.S. and Israel, that moment seems to have arrived. While the U.S. seeks to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the ongoing conflict has inadvertently given Iran a valuable leverage point: control over the strait. This influence has even come up in recent peace negotiations, with Iran insisting on its sovereignty over the waterway.
There are three main reasons why Iran’s control over the strait is significant:
First, it can generate substantial revenue from ships passing through. By charging minimal tolls — approximately $1 per barrel — Iran could potentially earn around $600 million monthly from oil and another $800 million from gas shipments. Economists estimate that Persian Gulf states will shoulder most of these costs, with possible annual tolls hitting $14 billion.
Second, controlling the strait serves as a form of security. By threatening to disrupt a key global energy route, Iran raises the stakes for any military action against it, creating economic deterrence.
Third, this control offers Iran geopolitical leverage, particularly with energy-dependent countries. It allows Iran to negotiate deals and encourage nations to bypass U.S. sanctions in return for access to the strait.
The U.S. is working to counter this leverage, but Iran’s control is more manageable than any blockade the U.S. might attempt. Restrictions on the strait could have significant economic implications, not just for the U.S. but for the global market. This scenario could reflect what some call “America’s Suez moment,” revealing limits to U.S. power.
What about China? The country relies heavily on crude oil from Iran, with imports accounting for over 80% of its oil. So far, China has not pressured Iran regarding its control over the strait and has condemned the U.S. blockade, labeling it “dangerous and irresponsible.” Despite one ship turning back, others have managed to navigate the new toll system, indicating a temporary acceptance of Iran’s rules by China.
China has diversified its oil sources to reduce dependency on any single supplier, and it boasts enough reserves to sustain its needs without strait transit for up to seven months. However, experts suggest that China would likely oppose a long-term toll system, preferring normal passage through the strait.
China’s evolving position also aligns with changing dynamics in the Gulf. Many Gulf states are rethinking their ties to the U.S. and Israel, leading them to explore broader alliances. Recent trade figures indicate that exchanges between Gulf nations and China approached $257 billion in 2024. This level of engagement showcases a growing trend away from traditional Western partnerships.
China’s role in regional diplomacy has been expanding, playing a part in brokering agreements like the normalization between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Looking to the future, Iran may aim to forge a new security framework involving Gulf states, with China as a potential facilitator, marking a notable shift from U.S.-led security frameworks.
