Is Jacob Wilson’s Breakout for Real? Join the Poll and Share Your Thoughts!

This offseason, the Athletics made a significant investment in their franchise, marking their largest Opening Day payroll since 2021. They added players like Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs. However, the team knew that young talent would need to step up for them to compete in the tough AL West division.

Fortunately, that’s exactly what’s happening. The A’s are off to a solid start in West Sacramento with a 20-18 record, holding second place in the AL West, even after dropping their recent series to the Mariners. With big names like Houston and Arlington struggling, this might be their chance. Notably, recent first-round picks Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom have been shining. Wilson, for example, kicked off the season with an impressive 15-game hitting streak, boasting a batting average of .368 over those games.

While those numbers are impressive, his .358 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) might not be sustainable, especially since he didn’t walk during that stretch. Looking closely, by his 150th plate appearance, Wilson was hitting .357/.383/.476 with a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 148. His walk rate is low at 4%, and his strikeout rate is around the same at 4.7%. His BABIP is quite high, and his barrel rate is low at 2.2%, suggesting he won’t hit for much power anytime soon. His isolated power (ISO) is slightly better than expected at .119, though.

These stats indicate that while Wilson likely won’t maintain his current output, it’s too early to say he’ll fall back to the 86 wRC+ he had over 28 games last year. There are recent success stories in the majors that can provide insight. Players like Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan have thrived with similar strategies. Yet, others like Nick Madrigal and Billy Hamilton faltered due to their lack of power. This raises the question: can Wilson follow in the footsteps of players like Kwan and Arraez to become a consistent MLB hitter?

Looking at Arraez’s 2023 season with the Marlins, where he hit .354/.393/.469 with a wRC+ of 130, we see some parallels. Arraez struck out only 5.5% of the time and had a BABIP of .362, thanks to a league-leading line drive rate of 28.5%. His low percentage of fly balls—only 28.7%—limits his power but boosts his batting average. However, replicating Arraez’s success can be tricky due to year-to-year variations in hitting. His wRC+ dropped to 109 recently, influenced by a lower BABIP and line drive rate.

Wilson’s approach mirrors Arraez’s, albeit with some caution. With a 23.7% line-drive rate and a lower soft contact rate of 16.8%, he shows promise. Yet, he might need to adopt more patience at the plate like Kwan, who swings less frequently than both Arraez and Wilson.

How do you feel about Wilson’s potential? Can he be a consistent player like Arraez, or will he need to adapt to stay competitive? Share your thoughts!

For additional insights on players’ developments, check out the latest analysis from [Baseball Prospectus](https://www.baseballprospectus.com). It’s a great resource for all things MLB.

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jacob wilson (b. 2002)