The situation in the Grand South and Grand Southeast regions remains challenging. Many households are facing food shortages as the peak lean season approaches from January to March. Unfortunately, erratic rainfall has harmed crops and limited job opportunities in agriculture. This year’s rainy season started in November, but inconsistent precipitation is expected through April. If the dry conditions continue, crop failures could worsen the crisis.
In the Grand South, poor households are running out of staple foods like roots and tubers sooner than usual. With food prices remaining high, many are forced to buy food instead of relying on their own supplies. Some families are making tough choices, such as eating fewer meals or selling belongings. They are also turning to wild fruits, like raketa, to fill the gaps in their diets. The lack of crop production is leading to fewer job opportunities, putting further strain on these communities.
Households in the Grand Southeast are currently meeting their basic food needs with off-season rice and fish. However, as the months go on, they may need to rely more on wild fruits like breadfruit. Additionally, the cyclone season brings risks of heavy rains and possible crop damage, leading to higher transport costs and infrastructure losses. Fortunately, soil moisture levels are decent for growing maize and other cereals, which could help local food production.
On a positive note, the annual inflation rate has dipped slightly, from 7.5% in September to 7.4% in October 2025. The International Monetary Fund predicts this trend will continue, potentially reaching 7.3% by the end of the year. Reduced inflation can improve purchasing power for families, helping those struggling to meet their needs.
Rice imports have surged more than double in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year. If the next growing season proves poor, imports might rise even more. While these imports might lower rice prices temporarily, they could hurt local farmers and laborers in the long run, as imported rice is often cheaper than locally produced options.
Understanding these dynamics is crucial for addressing food security issues in the region. Ongoing monitoring and support for affected households are essential as they navigate these challenges.
For more detailed insights, you can check the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and the November 2025 Key Message Update. These reports provide important information about the current state and future outlook of the situation based on the latest data.
