Novo Nordisk, the company behind popular weight-loss drugs like Wegovy and Ozempic, is facing tough times. They predict a significant dip in revenue this year, largely due to efforts by Donald Trump to lower drug prices, increasing competition, and the expiration of key patents.
The company’s CEO, Mike Doustdar, noted that sales could fall between 5% and 13%. This is a stark contrast to the double-digit growth they’ve enjoyed over the years, despite the recent U.S. launch of the new Wegovy pill. After announcing these forecasts, Novo’s stock took a hit, losing about 17% in just one day, a reflection of their year-to-date losses nearing 50%.
Last year, Novo recorded a 10% growth in total sales, reaching 309 billion Danish kroner (£36.6 billion). Profit before tax rose slightly to 130.5 billion kroner. Doustdar mentioned a “year of unprecedented pricing pressure” ahead but expressed optimism about future sales of obesity and diabetes drugs, hoping to see increased volumes as prices decrease.
The company’s agreement with the Trump administration dramatically cut the price of its treatments. Patients now pay, on average, about $350 (£255) monthly, down from over $1,000 (£730). However, the patent for semaglutide, a key ingredient in their drugs, is expiring in various markets like India, allowing generic competitors to enter. Meanwhile, cheaper alternatives, often made by pharmacies, are also affecting sales.
Despite these challenges, Novo still retains patent protections for semaglutide in Europe and Japan until 2033 and in the U.S. until 2032. This is crucial as they face stiff competition from rivals like Eli Lilly, whose Mounjaro injection has been reported to produce even more weight loss.
Lilly’s fortunes contrast sharply with Novo’s. They reached a staggering $1 trillion valuation last year and are forecasting significant sales growth, estimating 2026 revenue at $80 billion to $83 billion, a notable jump from $65 billion. Their shares rose by 9.5% following the forecast.
Wegovy, the new oral weight-loss pill, has gained traction quickly, with 50,000 prescriptions issued weekly by late January. Priced between $149 and $299 for cash payers, it is also available at a discount through Amazon’s pharmacy. This drug mimics a gut hormone that helps control appetite.
Derren Nathan from Hargreaves Lansdown highlighted that while the pressures from pricing, patent expirations, and stiff competition from rivals are real, the successful launch of the Wegovy pill is a bright spot amidst the gloom.
Meanwhile, GSK, another major player in the pharmaceutical sector, has also adjusted its expectations, projecting sales growth between 3% and 5% for this year, down from 7% previously. New CEO Luke Miels aims for £40 billion-plus sales by 2031, emphasizing the need for innovation in their labs.
In this shifting landscape, both companies are navigating the complex interplay of drug pricing, competition, and market demand. The outcome of these changes will likely shape the future of the weight-loss drug market significantly.
For more insights on counterfeit weight-loss medications, check out this article from The Guardian.
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