A huge cluster of sunspots has recently appeared on the sun’s side facing Earth. This group, known as AR 4294-4296, is about the size of the sunspot that caused the largest recorded solar storm, called the Carrington Event, in 1859. Don’t worry, though! While we might see some beautiful auroras and minor tech disturbances in the coming days, another explosive event like Carrington seems unlikely.
The sunspots—AR 4294 and AR 4296—are intertwined and were first spotted on November 28. A week earlier, NASA’s Perseverance rover detected them while observing the sun’s far side from Mars.
This current sunspot group has a dark surface area roughly 90% of the original Carrington sunspot’s size. Sunspots can generate powerful solar flares, which might cause radio blackouts and send huge clouds of plasma our way—known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). When these clouds interact with Earth’s magnetic field, they create geomagnetic storms that can disrupt electronics and create stunning auroras in the night sky.
According to Spaceweather.com, this sunspot group is one of the largest we’ve seen in a decade and has the capacity to unleash X-class flares, the most potent type on record. If AR 4294-4296 erupts, it could impact Earth, potentially leading to technological disruptions.
Historically, the Carrington Event produced an X45 flare, a record strength compared to modern solar flares. For context, the most powerful recent flare was an X7 in October 2024. If an X45 flare hit Earth today, it could knock out satellites and severely damage our electrical infrastructure, with damage costs estimated to exceed $1 trillion, based on simulations.
However, size isn’t everything with sunspots. While bigger sunspots can create stronger flares, their explosive potential also depends on their magnetic field configuration. Some larger sunspots can be harmless.
As for AR 4294-4296, its tangled magnetic fields could lead to some flares. So far, it has already hinted at a possible X-class flare while on the sun’s far side. Experts are wary but don’t see an imminent superstorm like Carrington.
Scientists are watching AR 4294-4296 closely to track its activity. If it rotates past Earth without erupting, there’s a chance it could return for a second round later this year, possibly around Christmas.
Interestingly, the sun has been very active lately due to its current solar cycle, known as solar maximum, which happens every 11 years. This has resulted in an increase in X-class flares, including two powerful eruptions that triggered severe geomagnetic storms in November 2024. This year recorded the highest number of X-class flares since 1996, leading to remarkable auroras visible far and wide.
If you’re curious to learn more about the sun, check out the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory for live updates and spectacular images.
