NASA Increases Chances of Asteroid Impact on the Moon in 2032: What You Need to Know

The chances of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon in 2032 have increased a bit, according to NASA. As of June 5, its odds of lunar impact are now at 4.3%, up from 3.8%. This asteroid was in the spotlight earlier this year due to concerns it might collide with Earth. However, further studies showed that our planet is safe. That said, there’s still a small chance it could strike the Moon.

With data from the James Webb Space Telescope, scientists could refine 2024 YR4’s orbit. NASA noted, “As data comes in, it is normal for the impact probability to evolve.” When this asteroid was first found by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in December 2024, NASA immediately flagged it as a potential threat. Initially, it had about a 1% chance of hitting Earth by December 22, 2032, but that alarmingly rose to nearly 3% before dropping back to zero by late February.

At the time of its discovery, 2024 YR4 was more than 500,000 miles from Earth, and it’s since moved even farther away. After mid-April, it became too distant for ground-based telescopes to monitor. Its next close approach won’t be until June 2028, yet the James Webb Telescope was able to track it for about a month even after it slipped out of range of traditional technology.

Andy Rivkin, a planetary astronomer at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, and his team used Webb’s Near-Infrared Camera to continue observing 2024 YR4. They collected valuable data that improved predictions about its position on December 22, 2032, by 20%. Although the chances of it hitting the Moon are still low, if it were to collide, the impact wouldn’t change the Moon’s orbit. NASA also found that 2024 YR4 is about 174 to 220 feet wide, which is relatively small for an asteroid. A direct hit would likely only create a new crater.

However, this event could still be significant. If 2024 YR4 hits the Moon, it would offer scientists a rare chance to observe crater formation in real-time, especially if it strikes the side facing Earth. Even though the asteroid no longer poses a danger to our planet, its discovery has helped researchers practice planetary defense strategies, which could be crucial in the future.

Looking ahead, NASA is preparing for the asteroid’s next pass by Earth in 2028. More observations could provide insights into its shape and composition, both important for understanding potential impacts. Until then, we can only watch and wait as this intriguing space traveler makes its journey.

For more on planetary defense efforts, visit NASA’s Planetary Defense blog.

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