NASA Increases Estimates: What You Need to Know About the Rising Risk of Asteroid Impact on Earth

Nasa has raised the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth. Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 2.6% probability of hitting our planet in 2032. That’s about 1 in 38.

This number has just changed from a previous estimate of 2.3%. Just a few months ago, the chance was only 1%. The adjustments came from new and better observations, which have helped scientists refine the asteroid’s path.

Even though the asteroid is still likely not to hit us, the data reveals a risk corridor. This corridor indicates that over 100 million people live in areas that could potentially be affected by 2024 YR4.

According to Nasa’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), 2024 YR4 rates a 3 on the Torino Scale. This scale measures potential impact danger, with 8 being the highest risk level. The asteroid’s smaller size means it would cause less damage upon impact, even if it did hit.

Scientists estimate that 2024 YR4 is between 40 and 90 meters wide. This size is based on its brightness, which can change depending on how shiny its surface is. Astronomers are working to learn more about this to improve their estimates.

Right now, the asteroid is moving away from Earth and will be out of sight by April. Scientists are racing to gather as much information as they can before it disappears. It won’t be visible again until 2028, and by then, it might be too late to prepare.

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