NASA Reduces ‘City-Killer’ Asteroid 2024 YR4 Impact Risk to 1 in 67: What You Need to Know!

Good news for those worried about asteroid 2024 YR4! NASA has announced that the chances of this asteroid hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, have dropped significantly. The risk is now estimated to be about 1 in 67, down from an earlier assessment of 1 in 32.

This update came from NASA’s X feed on February 19. New data about the asteroid’s orbit, collected just before the announcement, helped refine these risk estimates. 2024 YR4 is about 180 feet (55 meters) wide.

Just the day before, 2024 YR4 had been labeled the highest-risk asteroid by NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies. Now it remains at the top of the risk table, but the odds are much less alarming. The next highest risk asteroid, 1950 DA, has only a 0.039% chance of hitting Earth in 2880.

NASA explained that the 1.5% chance of impact reflects ongoing improvements in understanding the asteroid’s path. They reassured the public that they would keep monitoring 2024 YR4, stating, “Our understanding improves with every observation.”

Along with NASA’s assessment, the European Space Agency (ESA) also lowered the risk of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth to about 1.38% or 1 in 73.

This news gives many a chance to say “I told you so” about the asteroid’s risk falling.

Asteroid hunter David Rankin, who helped discover 2024 YR4 through the Catalina Sky Survey, had previously anticipated a decrease in risk as astronomers gathered more data. He explains that slight uncertainties in asteroid measurements can lead to significant changes in predicted paths. It’s much like holding a long stick—a small movement at one end can cause noticeable shifts at the other end.

Even with reduced risk, there’s a slim chance, about 1 in 125 (0.8%), that 2024 YR4 could hit the moon instead of Earth. However, the most likely outcome is for the asteroid to miss both our planet and its moon, continuing its journey around the sun.

We won’t have to wait too long for more updates. After a swing away from Earth, 2024 YR4 is expected to return, becoming visible again from ground-based telescopes in 2028. This asteroid presents not just a chance for potential impact studies, but also an exciting opportunity to observe an asteroid up close as it travels through the inner solar system.