New Breakthrough: Scientists Unlock Secrets to Mitigating Earthquake Risks at Italy’s Campi Flegrei Caldera

Recently, southern Italy has been shaken by a series of earthquakes centered around the Campi Flegrei volcanic area. This has been particularly alarming for the hundreds of thousands of residents above this active caldera. Since 2022, these quakes have been intensifying, prompting urgent discussions about disaster responses and evacuation plans.

Scientists may have found a way to ease this unrest. By managing water runoff and controlling groundwater levels, they aim to reduce pressure in the geothermal reservoir below. This approach could prevent future earthquakes.

Researchers at Stanford have conducted extensive studies, including subsurface imaging, to understand the dynamics at play. Their findings suggest that pressure buildup from water and vapor often leads to earthquakes, especially when the reservoir’s caprock seals off. Their research, highlighted in Science Advances, breaks away from the assumption that magma is the primary cause of seismicity in this region.

“We’re looking at how water interacts with the geothermal system,” says Tiziana Vanorio, the study’s lead author and an expert in Earth sciences. “By addressing surface runoff and even extracting some fluids from wells, we can potentially control the pressure.” This is significant because, historically, past unrest in the late 20th century was linked to similar pressure issues in the sub-surface layers.

The earthquakes have created recognizable patterns in the land, leading scientists to believe that the caldera not only experiences uplift but also subsidence without eruptions. The area has witnessed major movements, including a substantial rise of over six feet in the early 1980s and slower fluctuations since. In recent years, residents have noted the ground’s bizarre ‘breathing’ motions, with rapid rises and falls occurring, often accompanied by loud rumblings that signify steam-driven explosions.

Interestingly, research has found that increasing rainfall over the past two decades has had a direct effect on groundwater levels, impacting the seismic activity in the area. The pressure created from this water accumulation, rather than rainfall itself, drives the disruptions.

Vanorio emphasizes that addressing this water pressure is crucial. “If we restore natural water flows, we can gain better control of the geothermal system,” she explains. This proactive approach brings a fresh perspective; instead of only monitoring geophysical changes, the goal now is to prevent them.

The unique geology of Campi Flegrei, characterized by its fibrous caprock, complicates matters further. This rock type can store strain and may eventually result in explosive releases of water, steam, and ash if pressure becomes too high. Understanding how these geological features behave allows for more accurate predictions of seismic activity.

Through advanced imaging techniques, researchers create detailed views of the caldera’s subsurface, akin to a medical CT scan. This cross-disciplinary work, combining geophysics with rock physics, is revealing the complex interactions within the volcanic system. It aims to pave the way for improved safety measures for residents prone to quakes.

Experts believe that with this new understanding, local authorities can take decisive action to minimize risks. “We can’t control the underlying magma,” says Vanorio, “but by managing groundwater and monitoring pressure levels, we can significantly mitigate the risk of seismic events.”

In summary, the discovery and management of the interactions between groundwater and geothermal pressure could revolutionize how we handle volcanic unrest, particularly in vulnerable regions like Campi Flegrei. With ongoing monitoring and preventive strategies, there’s hope for a safer future in one of Italy’s most dynamic geological landscapes.

For further reading: Tiziana Vanorio, The Recurrence of Geophysical Manifestations at the Campi Flegrei Caldera, Science Advances (2025). [DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adt2067](https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adt2067)

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