The Paris Agreement marked a significant step in the global fight against climate change, with over 190 countries aiming to limit the rise in average global temperatures to well below 2 °C, ideally to 1.5 °C. But are we keeping our promises?
A recent study from Jeonbuk National University, led by Assistant Professor Taeyoung Jin, suggests we’re not on track. The research analyzed current climate pledges and found that if countries stick to their commitments, global temperatures could still rise to about 2.48 °C by 2300—above the 2 °C safe limit.
Dr. Jin stated, “Even if every country keeps its current promises to reduce emissions, we are still headed for about 2.5 °C warming.” The team used a sophisticated model called the RICE-2010, which examines how economic activity interacts with emissions and climate change.
By incorporating current policies and commitments into their model, the researchers created four scenarios, including one where no emission cuts are made. In the worst-case scenario, temperatures might rise by as much as 7 °C. The net-zero scenario, based on current commitments, limits warming to 2.48 °C, which, while better than doing nothing, still falls short of the target.
The report emphasizes that to meet the 2 °C target, we need to cut about 5 gigatonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions by 2030. Without stronger action, expected climate-related damages could reach nearly $65 trillion by 2200. On the other hand, timely actions could reduce this figure to around $15 trillion.
Experts warn that without serious efforts, we can expect more extreme weather, rising food and energy costs, and greater economic instability. However, there’s hope. If countries cooperate and act decisively, they can significantly reduce the long-term risks of climate change. Dr. Jin highlighted, “Today’s climate promises are not enough. But earlier and more decisive actions can limit overall damage.”
These insights are crucial as nations prepare to update their climate commitments. The pressure is on for more ambitious and immediate actions to tackle climate change effectively.
For more information, you can access the full study in the journal Environmental Science & Policy.
